QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Containers/Packaging
Crown CCK
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 2% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $147.78+24%
- Market Value
- $116.65price +2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −2%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.43
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $119.24
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$92.04−22.8%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 19$116.65−2.2%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$119.24you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$122.14+2.4%
- Fair value est.base case$147.78+23.9%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CCK’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 1% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CCK moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.0× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.43
- Volatility
- 25% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.22
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.04
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 80% to $6.38 in FY2025.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $147.78, 24% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 7.8% (price / FCF 12.8×): $1.0B of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsShare count down 6.4% in a year: $789M of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 16.2× vs a 27.5× median for the 130 Industrials companies we cover.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
Balance sheetNet debt of $5.2B, 40% of the market cap (Sep 30, 2026).
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 2.0×, above the 0.5× median for the 116 Industrials companies we cover.
GrowthSales fell 1.5% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 4.5% median for the 146 Industrials companies we cover.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 12%, below the 15% median for the 128 Industrials companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Crown in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrials
All fundamentals
P/E 16.2 · FCF yield 7.8% · ROE 27%
Valuation
- P/E
- 16.2×Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 12.8×
- FCF yield
- 7.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- 8.6×
- Price / sales
- 0.94×
- Price / book
- 4.40×
- Market cap
- $12.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $18.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $13.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +13.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −1.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $7.17
- EPS growth, last FY
- +79.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $795M
- Net income growth
- −16%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 12.0%
- Net margin
- 5.8%
- FCF margin
- 7.3%
- Return on equity
- 27%
- Return on invested capital
- 15%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $629M
- Total debt
- $5.9B
- Net cash
- −$5.2B
- Debt / equity
- 1.99×
- Interest coverage
- 4.2×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.0B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +0%
- Dividend yield
- 1.12%$145M paid
- Payout ratio
- 18%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $789M6.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −6.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $45M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Crown’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $147.78 · MV $116.65 · FCF value $167.68
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -1.5% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $9.33 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 28, 2026. Net debt $5.2B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 68 · 5 days +1.7%
The business
FCF $0.7B · Sales +16%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin5%
- Gross margin20%
- Operating margin12%
- Return on invested capital16%
- Return on equity27%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+16%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.6×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
CCK is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.