QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Pharmaceuticals
Elanco Animal Health ELAN
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 14% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $11.87−49%
- Market Value
- $23.15at the price
- Off 52-wk high
- −14%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.27
3 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $23.06
- Fair value est.base case$11.87−48.5%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$19.80−14.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$23.06you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$23.15+0.4%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$26.84+16.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ELAN’s free cash flow would need to grow about 15% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ELAN moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.3× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.27
- Volatility
- 42% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.39
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.30
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
Balance sheetPaid down debt: $3.8B at FY2025, 35% less than at FY2023.
GrowthSales grew 12% to $5.0B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationPrice / book of 1.8×, below the 5.2× median for the 93 Health Care companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $11.87, 49% below the price.
ProfitabilityLost $199M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of −3.0%, below the 13% median for the 91 Health Care companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 3.7× EBITDA (limit 3×).
RiskReports earnings Nov 6 (consensus EPS $0.20): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Elanco Animal Health in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Pharmaceuticals
All fundamentals
FCF yield 3.2% · ROE -3% · Sales +12%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 30.8×
- FCF yield
- 3.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 2.32×
- Price / book
- 1.77×
- Market cap
- $11.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $14.8B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $5.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +12.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +2.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$0.41
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$199M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 55.4%
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- −4.0%
- FCF margin
- 7.5%
- Return on equity
- −3%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $530M
- Total debt
- $3.7B
- Net cash
- −$3.1B
- Debt / equity
- 0.56×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $379M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +5%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +1.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $74M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Elanco Animal Health’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $11.87 · MV $23.15 · FCF value $18.89
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 2.2% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.75 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026. Net debt $3.1B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 52 · 5 days +2.4%
The business
FCF $0.4B · Sales +10%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.3%
- Gross margin55%
- Operating margin9%
- Return on invested capital3%
- Return on equity−3%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+10%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.7×
Next report
Nov 6
- DateFri Nov 6, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.20
- Year-ago EPS$0.19
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
ELAN is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.