QualityDipStocks / Finance · Major Banks
First Citizens BancShares FCNCA
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 1% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $2,976+26%
- Market Value
- $2,360at the price
- Off 52-wk high
- −1%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.46
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $2,353
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$1,766−24.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$2,353you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 23$2,360+0.3%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$2,382+1.3%
- Fair value est.base case$2,976+26.5%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 18.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 16.0%; bull = 8.5% and 20.0%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, FCNCA would need a return on equity of about 14% a year; our estimate uses 18%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much FCNCA moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.46
- Volatility
- 27% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.22
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.07
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur residual-income fair value estimate is $2,976, 26% above the price.
Cash returnsShare count down 12.9% in a year: $3.3B of buybacks over 12 months.
GrowthSales compounded 23% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationPrice / book of 1.2×, below the 1.8× median for the 143 Finance companies we cover.
ValuationP/E of 12.0×, below the 13.5× median for the 151 Finance companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales growth slowed to 1% over the last 12 months, from 23% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 44 points in two fiscal years, to 10% in FY2025.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 13% to $165.24 in FY2025.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 0.7%, below the 2.2% median for the 132 Finance companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on First Citizens BancShares in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Major Banks
All fundamentals
P/E 12.0 · ROE 10% · Sales +1%
Valuation
- P/E
- 12.0×Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Price / sales
- 2.82×
- Price / book
- 1.24×
- Market cap
- $27.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $57.8B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $9.6Bnet interest income + noninterest income
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +0.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +23.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $186.46
- EPS growth, last FY
- −12.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.3B
- Net income growth
- −3%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 23.6%
- FCF margin
- 25.6%
- Return on equity
- 10%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.5B
- Total debt
- $32.2B
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for a bank
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $2.5B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −6%
- Dividend yield
- 0.68%$185M paid
- Payout ratio
- 8%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $3.3B12.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −12.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From First Citizens BancShares’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $2,976 · MV $2,360
Financials model (residual income): book value $1,765.38 a share on Jun 30, 2026 (preferred stock excluded), plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 18.0%, the average of 10.8% for the trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026 and 25.2% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 100% of earnings (dividends 8% + net buybacks 146%; capped at 100%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 10-Q filed Aug 7, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 68 · 5 days −1.0%
The business
FCF $1.5B · Sales +2%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.7%
- Return on equity11%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+2%
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
FCNCA is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.