QualityDipStocks / Miscellaneous · Miscellaneous
Ferguson Enterprises FERG
Not in a dip by our rules: 11% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate, 5% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $131.31−45%
- Market Value
- $227.27price +5%
- Off 52-wk high
- −11%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.11
3 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $238.68
- Fair value est.base case$131.31−45.0%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$214.26−10.2%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 11$227.27−4.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$238.68you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$267.71+12.2%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, FERG’s free cash flow would need to grow about 14% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much FERG moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 2.3× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.11
- Volatility
- 30% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.48
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.35
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 34% over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 23%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $131.31, 45% below the price.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 6 points in two fiscal years, to 32% in FY2025.
GrowthSales grew only 2.5% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationTrades 5.0% above its Market Value of $227.27, the average price paid since the Aug 11 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Ferguson Enterprises in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
All fundamentals
P/E 23.0 · ROE 34%
Valuation
- P/E
- 23.0×3-yr-end avg 22.6×
- Price / FCF
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF yield
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EV / EBITDA
- 15.7×
- Price / sales
- 1.47×
- Price / book
- 7.88×
- Market cap
- $46.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $49.8B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $31.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- n/ano year-ago 12-month revenue
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +2.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $10.16
- EPS growth, last FY
- +9.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.0B
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 31.0%
- Operating margin
- 8.9%
- Net margin
- 6.4%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 34%
- Return on invested capital
- 23%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $557M
- Total debt
- $4.2B
- Net cash
- −$3.6B
- Debt / equity
- 0.71×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Ferguson Enterprises’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $131.31 · MV $227.27 · FCF value $234.83
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 2.5% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $8.29 a share (fiscal year to Jul 31, 2025), from the 10-KT filed Feb 27, 2026. Capex: latest full fiscal year (the company moved its year-end to December).
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 67 · 5 days +5.2%
The business
FCF $1.8B · Sales +15%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.8B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin6%
- Gross margin31%
- Operating margin9%
- Return on invested capital20%
- Return on equity34%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+15%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.0×
Next report
Nov 9
- DateMon Nov 9, before the open
- Consensus EPS$3.28
- Year-ago EPS$2.84
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when FERG fires a reversal signal
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