QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Hospitals
HCA Healthcare HCA
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 13% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $572.87+21%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −13%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.12
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $473.19
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$361.32−23.6%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$473.19you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$545.13+15.2%
- Fair value est.base case$572.87+21.1%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 7.9% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 5.9%; bull = 8.5% and 9.9% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, HCA’s free cash flow would need to grow about 4% a year for five years; our estimate uses 8%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much HCA moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.4× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.12
- Volatility
- 31% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.05
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.09
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $572.87, 21% above the price.
Cash returnsShare count down 8.0% in a year: $9.2B of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 15.2× vs a 29.2× median for the 86 Health Care companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.8% (price / FCF 17.2×): $6.0B of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 29% to $28.33 in FY2025.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetNet debt of $43.9B, 43% of the market cap (Sep 30, 2026).
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 26% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales grew 5.8% over the last 12 months, below the 8.6% median for the 101 Health Care companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 0.7%, below the 1.1% median for the 47 Health Care companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 3.2× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on HCA Healthcare in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Hospitals
All fundamentals
P/E 15.2 · FCF yield 5.8% · Sales +6%
Valuation
- P/E
- 15.2×Health Care median 29.2×
- Price / FCF
- 17.2×
- FCF yield
- 5.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.31×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $103Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $147B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $78.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +5.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +7.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $30.15
- EPS growth, last FY
- +28.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $6.8B
- Net income growth
- +7%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 8.6%
- FCF margin
- 7.6%
- Return on equity
- n/anegative shareholder equity
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $908M
- Total debt
- $44.8B
- Net cash
- −$43.9B
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $6.0B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −26%
- Dividend yield
- 0.66%$681M paid
- Payout ratio
- 10%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $9.2B8.9% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −8.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $404M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From HCA Healthcare’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $572.87 · FCF value $682.35
Assumes 7.9% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 7.9% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $27.50 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026. Net debt $43.9B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 61 · 5 days +0.9%
The business
FCF $6.0B · Sales +4%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$6.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin8%
- Gross margin43%
- Operating margin15%
- Return on invested capital22%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+4%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.2×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
HCA is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.