QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Business Services
HealthEquity HQY
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 4% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 9% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $179.10+75%
- Market Value
- $94.28price +9%
- Off 52-wk high
- −4%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.43
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $102.47
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$73.21−28.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 27$94.28−8.0%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$102.47you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$106.79+4.2%
- Fair value est.base case$179.10+74.8%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, HQY’s free cash flow would need to grow about 5% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much HQY moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.7× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.43
- Volatility
- 35% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.16
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.04
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $179.10, 75% above the price.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 126% to $2.46 in FY2026.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 24.6% in FY2026 from 11.8% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 69.5% in FY2026 from 62.3% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsShare count down 4.3% in a year: $404M of buybacks over 12 months.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 18.2×, above the 17.0× median for the 55 Health Care companies we cover.
ValuationP/E of 36.4×, above the 29.2× median for the 86 Health Care companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 7.3% over the last 12 months, below the 8.6% median for the 101 Health Care companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 8.7% above its Market Value of $94.28, the average price paid since the Aug 27 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on HealthEquity in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Health Care
All fundamentals
P/E 36.4 · FCF yield 5.7% · ROE 11%
Valuation
- P/E
- 36.4×Health Care median 29.2×
- Price / FCF
- 17.7×
- FCF yield
- 5.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- 18.2×
- Price / sales
- 6.32×
- Price / book
- 4.33×
- Market cap
- $8.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $9.3B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.4B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +7.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +15.1%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.77
- EPS growth, last FY
- +125.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $236M
- Net income growth
- +62%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 71.2%
- Operating margin
- 25.8%
- Net margin
- 17.4%
- FCF margin
- 35.8%
- Return on equity
- 11%
- Return on invested capital
- 10%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $256M
- Total debt
- $931M
- Net cash
- −$675M
- Debt / equity
- 0.47×
- Interest coverage
- 6.7×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $488M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +33%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $404M4.7% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −4.3%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $81M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 31, 2026. From HealthEquity’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $179.10 · MV $94.28 · FCF value $121.99
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 15.1% a year FY23–FY26; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $5.81 a share (trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 27, 2026. Net debt $675M, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 66 · 5 days −1.4%
The business
FCF $0.4B · Sales +8%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin29%
- Gross margin71%
- Operating margin28%
- Return on invested capital11%
- Return on equity11%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+8%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.4×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
HQY is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.