QualityDipStocks / Finance · Savings Institutions
HSBC Holdings plc. HSBC
On dip watch: 21% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $65.20−24%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −21%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.26
4 bullish · 2 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $85.42
- Fair value est.base case$65.20−23.7%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$67.56−20.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$85.42you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$107.86+26.3%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 12.6% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 10.6%; bull = 8.5% and 14.6%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, HSBC would need a return on equity of about 16% a year; our estimate uses 13%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much HSBC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 2.2× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.26
- Volatility
- 28% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.58
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.47
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsDividend yield of 4.5% ($13.5B paid over 12 months, 58% of earnings).
ValuationPrice / book of 1.5×, below the 1.8× median for the 143 Finance companies we cover.
ValuationP/E of 13.0×, below the 13.5× median for the 151 Finance companies we cover.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 2 of 5
ValuationOur residual-income fair value estimate is $65.20, 24% below the price.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 3.2% in the last fiscal year, below the 17% median for the 137 Finance companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on HSBC Holdings plc. in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Finance
All fundamentals
P/E 13.0 · ROE 12%
Valuation
- P/E
- 13.0×Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Price / sales
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Price / book
- 1.51×
- Market cap
- $300Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Sales growth, 12 months
- n/ano year-ago 12-month revenue
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.20
- EPS growth, last FY
- −3.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $23.1B
- Net income growth
- −7%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 12%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $433B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for a bank
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $28.3B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −56%
- Dividend yield
- 4.50%$13.5B paid
- Payout ratio
- 58%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $9.1B3.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From HSBC Holdings plc.’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $65.20
Financials model (residual income): book value $49.29 a share on Jun 30, 2026 (preferred stock excluded), 5 shares per ADR, plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 12.6%, the average of 14.0% for the trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026 and 11.2% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 66% of earnings (dividends 53% + net buybacks 13%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 6-K filed Aug 4, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 25 · 5 days −5.8%
The business
FCF $47.6B · Sales +8%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$47.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield16.0%
- Return on equity14%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+8%
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when HSBC fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on HSBC or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.