QualityDipStocks / Technology · Software
Intuit INTU
In a deep dip: 50% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate, 8% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $928.15+172%
- Market Value
- $316.56price +8%
- Off 52-wk high
- −50%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.16
5 bullish · 2 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $341.09
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$255.07−25.2%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 25$316.56−7.2%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$341.09you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$676.55+98.3%
- Fair value est.base case$928.15+172.1%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 14.3% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 12.3%; bull = 8.5% and 16.3% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, INTU’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 4% a year for five years; our estimate uses 14%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much INTU moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 4.0× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.16
- Volatility
- 51% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.04
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.05
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 20.7× is 55% below its own average of 46.2× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 9.2% (price / FCF 10.9×): $8.7B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $928.15, 172% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ValuationP/E of 20.7× vs a 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 50% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
Top bearish points 2 of 5
Balance sheetDebt rose 27% to $7.7B from FY2024 to FY2026.
ValuationTrades 7.7% above its Market Value of $316.56, the average price paid since the Aug 25 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Intuit in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software
All fundamentals
P/E 20.7 · FCF yield 9.2% · ROE 24%
Valuation
- P/E
- 20.7×3-yr-end avg 46.2× · Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 10.9×
- FCF yield
- 9.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- 14.9×
- Price / sales
- 4.41×
- Price / book
- 4.97×
- Market cap
- $94.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $97.4B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $21.4B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +13.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +14.3%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $16.46
- EPS growth, last FY
- +20.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $4.6B
- Net income growth
- +18%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 27.4%
- Net margin
- 21.3%
- FCF margin
- 40.4%
- Return on equity
- 24%
- Return on invested capital
- 20%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $4.7B
- Total debt
- $7.7B
- Net cash
- −$3.0B
- Debt / equity
- 0.40×
- Interest coverage
- 23.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $8.7B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +41%
- Dividend yield
- 1.43%$1.3B paid
- Payout ratio
- 30%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $5.4B5.7% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −2.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $2.1B
Trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 31, 2026. From Intuit’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $928.15 · MV $316.56 · FCF value $830.56
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 14.3% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 14.3% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $31.27 a share (fiscal year to Jul 31, 2026), from the 10-K filed Sep 9, 2026. Net debt $3.0B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 61 · 5 days −0.7%
The business
FCF $8.6B · Sales +14%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$8.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield9.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin40%
- Gross margin80%
- Operating margin29%
- Return on invested capital18%
- Return on equity23%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+14%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.5×
Next report
Nov 19
- DateThu Nov 19
- Consensus EPS$2.47
- Year-ago EPS$1.88
- QuarterOct/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when INTU fires a reversal signal
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