QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Auto parts
Lear LEA
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 20% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $231.00+95%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −20%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 0.98
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $118.44
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$99.28−16.2%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$118.44you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$148.68+25.5%
- Fair value est.base case$231.00+95.0%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.6% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.6%; bull = 8.5% and 5.6% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, LEA’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 8% a year for five years; our estimate uses 4%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much LEA moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 2.7× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.98
- Volatility
- 34% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.37
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.29
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $231.00, 95% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 11.9% (price / FCF 8.4×): $701M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 10.1× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count down 7.1% in a year: $525M of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 5.2×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 3.7%, below the 13% median for the 156 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 6.9%, below the 39% median for the 120 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew only 3.6% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 12%, below the 23% median for the 149 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Lear in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Auto parts
All fundamentals
P/E 10.1 · FCF yield 11.9% · ROE 12%
Valuation
- P/E
- 10.1×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 8.4×
- FCF yield
- 11.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- 5.2×
- Price / sales
- 0.25×
- Price / book
- 1.18×
- Market cap
- $5.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $7.8B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $23.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +3.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +3.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $11.48
- EPS growth, last FY
- −9.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $584M
- Net income growth
- +32%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 6.9%
- Operating margin
- 3.7%
- Net margin
- 2.5%
- FCF margin
- 2.9%
- Return on equity
- 12%
- Return on invested capital
- 10%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $889M
- Total debt
- $2.7B
- Net cash
- −$1.9B
- Debt / equity
- 0.55×
- Interest coverage
- 9.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $701M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −5%
- Dividend yield
- 2.69%$159M paid
- Payout ratio
- 27%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $525M8.9% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −7.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Oct 3, 2026; balance sheet at Oct 3, 2026. From Lear’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $231.00 · FCF value $382.89
Assumes 3.6% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 3.6% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $14.06 a share (trailing 12 months to Oct 3, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 30, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 46 · 5 days +1.5%
The business
FCF $0.8B · Sales +2%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.8B
- Free-cash-flow yield12.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin3%
- Gross margin8%
- Operating margin3%
- Return on invested capital8%
- Return on equity13%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+2%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.5×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
LEA is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.