QualityDipStocks / Telecommunications · Telecommunications Equipment
Lumentum LITE
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 26% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 9% under its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $920.74price −9%
- Off 52-wk high
- −26%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 3.09
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $840.70
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$188.36−77.6%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$840.70you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 11$920.74+9.5%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$1,133+34.8%
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for LITE: the model gives 85% below the price; trailing free cash flow is small next to the company's value, so a DCF on it says little. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, LITE’s free cash flow would need to grow about 53% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much LITE moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 7.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 3.09
- Volatility
- 99% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.40
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.49
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 83% to $3.0B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 41.7% in FY2026 from 18.5% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 17.4% in FY2026 from −31.9% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 19% a year from FY2023 to FY2026.
ValuationTrades 8.7% below its Market Value of $920.74, the average price paid since the Aug 11 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityLost $6.9B over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
Cash returnsShare count up 38.8% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 80×: a rich multiple of current earnings power.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
RiskSwings hard: beta 3.09 vs the S&P 500 and 99% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Lumentum in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Telecommunications Equipment
All fundamentals
FCF yield 0.5% · Sales +83%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 209.0×
- FCF yield
- 0.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- 80.1×
- Price / sales
- 20.81×
- Price / book
- 13.51×
- Market cap
- $62.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $63.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +83.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +19.5%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$92.96
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$6.9B
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 41.7%
- Operating margin
- 17.4%
- Net margin
- n/an/m
- FCF margin
- 10.0%
- Return on equity
- n/an/m: very small or negative equity
- Return on invested capital
- 8%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $2.7B
- Total debt
- $3.2B
- Net cash
- −$496M
- Debt / equity
- 0.70×
- Interest coverage
- 24.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $300M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +38.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $170M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 27, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 27, 2026. From Lumentum’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
MV $920.74 · FCF value $75.69
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 45 · 5 days +11.2%
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +109%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield0.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin10%
- Gross margin42%
- Operating margin18%
- Return on invested capital7%
- Return on equity−334%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+109%
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, after the close
- Consensus EPS$3.82
- Year-ago EPS$0.60
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
LITE is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.