QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Medical instruments
Medline MDLN
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 36% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $43.61+36%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −36%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.57
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $32.12
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$31.64−1.5%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$32.12you are here
- Fair value est.base case$43.61+35.8%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$49.99+55.6%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 10.6% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 8.6%; bull = 8.5% and 12.6% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MDLN’s free cash flow would need to grow about 5% a year for five years; our estimate uses 11%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Dec 18 to Oct 30, 218 sessions). Beta = how much MDLN moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.4× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.57
- Volatility
- 44% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.17
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.07
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $43.61, 36% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.6% (price / FCF 17.9×): $1.5B of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthSales compounded 11% a year from FY2023 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 7.8% in FY2025 from 5.4% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 13.2×, below the 17.0× median for the 55 Health Care companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 2.3× over the last 12 months.
Balance sheetNet debt of $9.9B, 36% of the market cap (Jun 27, 2026).
ProfitabilityGross margin of 26%, below the 65% median for the 81 Health Care companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; no sales-growth data; net debt 3.8× EBITDA (limit 3×).
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $0.32): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Medline in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Medical instruments
All fundamentals
FCF yield 5.6%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aearnings not tagged in SEC data
- Price / FCF
- 17.9×
- FCF yield
- 5.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- 13.2×
- Price / sales
- 0.92×
- Price / book
- 2.39×
- Market cap
- $27.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $37.6B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $29.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- n/ano year-ago 12-month revenue
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +10.6%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 26.2%
- Operating margin
- 6.1%
- Net margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF margin
- 5.2%
- Return on equity
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on invested capital
- 7%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $2.7B
- Total debt
- $12.6B
- Net cash
- −$9.9B
- Debt / equity
- 1.09×
- Interest coverage
- 2.3×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.5B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $18M0.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $94M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 27, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 27, 2026. From Medline’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $43.61 · FCF value $29.56
Assumes 10.6% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 10.6% a year FY23–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.80 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 27, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026. Net debt $9.9B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
5 days −5.8%
The business
FCF $1.6B
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin5%
- Gross margin26%
- Operating margin6%
- Return on invested capital6%
- Return on equity10%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.8×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.32
- Year-ago EPSN/A
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
MDLN is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.