QualityDipStocks / Finance · Major Banks
M&T Bank MTB
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 13% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $194.12−12%
- Market Value
- $219.17price +1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −13%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.58
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $220.72
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$180.90−18.0%
- Fair value est.base case$194.12−12.1%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 16$219.17−0.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$220.72you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$254.09+15.1%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 10.7% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 8.7%; bull = 8.5% and 12.7%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MTB would need a return on equity of about 13% a year; our estimate uses 11%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MTB moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 1.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.58
- Volatility
- 21% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.35
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.16
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsShare count down 8.3% in a year: $2.6B of buybacks over 12 months.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.8% ($906M paid over 12 months, 32% of earnings).
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 16% to $17.00 in FY2025.
ValuationPrice / book of 1.1×, below the 1.8× median for the 143 Finance companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur residual-income fair value estimate is $194.12, 12% below the price.
GrowthSales grew 5.8% over the last 12 months, below the 11% median for the 142 Finance companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 10%, below the 13% median for the 143 Finance companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 5.8% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 9.3% median for the 144 Finance companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on M&T Bank in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Major Banks
All fundamentals
P/E 11.1 · ROE 10% · Sales +6%
Valuation
- P/E
- 11.1×Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Price / sales
- 3.20×
- Price / book
- 1.14×
- Market cap
- $31.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $32.6B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $10.0Bnet interest income + noninterest income
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +5.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +5.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $18.89
- EPS growth, last FY
- +16.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.9B
- Net income growth
- +13%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 28.9%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 10%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $17.4B
- Total debt
- $18.2B
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for a bank
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 2.84%$906M paid
- Payout ratio
- 32%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $2.6B8.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −8.3%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From M&T Bank’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $194.12 · MV $219.17
Financials model (residual income): book value $177.29 a share on Jun 30, 2026 (preferred stock excluded), plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 10.7%, the average of 11.2% for the trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026 and 10.2% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 100% of earnings (dividends 32% + net buybacks 86%; capped at 100%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 10-Q filed Aug 4, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 48 · 5 days −0.4%
The business
FCF $3.0B · Sales +4%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$3.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield9.1%
- Return on equity11%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+4%
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
MTB is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.