QualityDipStocks / Real Estate · REITs
Rayonier REIT RYN
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 21% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $12.77−34%
- Market Value
- $19.73price −2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −21%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.19
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $19.38
- Fair value est.base case$12.77−34.1%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$17.99−7.2%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$19.38you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$19.73+1.8%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$24.65+27.2%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, RYN’s free cash flow would need to grow about 10% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much RYN moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.9× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.19
- Volatility
- 25% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.10
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.03
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsDividend yield of 6.0% ($298M paid over 12 months).
Balance sheetPaid down debt: $1.0B at FY2025, 23% less than at FY2023.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.4×, below the 0.9× median for the 26 Real Estate companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 1.0×, below the 2.6× median for the 47 Real Estate companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $12.77, 34% below the price.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 1.3× over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales shrank 19% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 17.2% in FY2025 from 23.4% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 4.3× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Rayonier REIT in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in REITs
All fundamentals
P/E 65.4 · ROE 2% · Sales +0%
Valuation
- P/E
- 65.4×Real Estate median 28.7×
- Price / FCF
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF yield
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 5.12×
- Price / book
- 0.95×
- Market cap
- $5.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $6.4B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $968M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +0.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −18.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.45
- EPS growth, last FY
- +26.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $76M
- Net income growth
- −90%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 23.7%
- Operating margin
- 6.0%
- Net margin
- 7.8%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 2%
- Return on invested capital
- 1%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $412M
- Total debt
- $1.9B
- Net cash
- −$1.4B
- Debt / equity
- 0.36×
- Interest coverage
- 1.3×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 6.00%$298M paid
- Payout ratio
- n/an/m
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $3M0.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $26M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Rayonier REIT’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $12.77 · MV $19.73 · FCF value $9.35
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -18.9% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.81 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2025), from the 10-Q filed Nov 7, 2025.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 55 · 5 days +3.9%
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +272%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin12%
- Gross margin25%
- Operating margin12%
- Return on invested capital1%
- Return on equity2%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+272%
- Net debt / EBITDA4.3×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.09
- Year-ago EPS$0.32
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
RYN is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.