QualityDipStocks / Technology · IT services
Science Applications International SAIC
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s at its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 14% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $229.18+51%
- Market Value
- $132.84price +14%
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.13
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $151.86
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$82.22−45.9%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 31$132.84−12.5%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$151.86you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$151.86at the price
- Fair value est.base case$229.18+50.9%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, SAIC’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 4% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much SAIC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 3.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.13
- Volatility
- 39% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.04
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.04
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $229.18, 51% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 9.5% (price / FCF 10.5×): $619M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsShare count down 8.5% in a year: $479M of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 17.1× vs a 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 40% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetNet debt of $2.4B, 36% of the market cap (Jul 31, 2026).
GrowthSales grew only −2.0% a year from FY2023 to FY2026.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 7.2% in FY2026 from 10.0% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 3.4× EBITDA (limit 3×).
ValuationTrades 14.3% above its Market Value of $132.84, the average price paid since the Aug 31 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Science Applications International in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in IT services
All fundamentals
P/E 17.1 · FCF yield 9.5% · ROE 26%
Valuation
- P/E
- 17.1×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 10.5×
- FCF yield
- 9.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- 14.1×
- Price / sales
- 0.88×
- Price / book
- 4.53×
- Market cap
- $6.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $8.9B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $7.4B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −0.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −2.0%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $8.58
- EPS growth, last FY
- +7.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $380M
- Net income growth
- −5%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 12.6%
- Operating margin
- 8.0%
- Net margin
- 5.1%
- FCF margin
- 8.4%
- Return on equity
- 26%
- Return on invested capital
- 13%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $126M
- Total debt
- $2.5B
- Net cash
- −$2.4B
- Debt / equity
- 1.73×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $619M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +40%
- Dividend yield
- 1.03%$67M paid
- Payout ratio
- 18%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $479M7.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −8.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $67M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 31, 2026. From Science Applications International’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $229.18 · MV $132.84 · FCF value $307.34
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -2.0% a year FY23–FY26; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $14.46 a share (trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 31, 2026. Net debt $2.4B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 78 · 5 days +4.2%
The business
FCF $0.5B · Sales +6%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield8.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin7%
- Gross margin13%
- Operating margin8%
- Return on invested capital12%
- Return on equity26%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+6%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.4×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
SAIC is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.