QualityDipStocks / Utilities · Natural Gas Distribution
TC Energy TRP
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 9% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $29.00−55%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −9%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.06
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $64.50
- Fair value est.base case$29.00−55.0%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$49.79−22.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$64.50you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$70.91+9.9%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 7.4% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 5.4%; bull = 8.5% and 9.4% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, TRP’s free cash flow would need to grow about 22% a year for five years; our estimate uses 7%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TRP moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.5× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.06
- Volatility
- 20% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.04
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.10
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 52.7% in FY2025 from 38.4% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetPaid down debt: $1.1B at FY2025, 47% less than at FY2023.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 3.7% ($2.5B paid over 12 months).
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 22%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
GrowthSales grew 11% to $10.9B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $29.00, 55% below the price.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 2.4× over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsPays out more in dividends than it earns: $2.5B paid vs $2.4B of net income.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 5.4× EBITDA (limit 3×).
RiskReports earnings Nov 5 (consensus EPS $0.64): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on TC Energy in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Natural Gas Distribution
All fundamentals
P/E 27.5 · FCF yield 2.2% · ROE 12%
Valuation
- P/E
- 27.5×Utilities median 21.2×
- Price / FCF
- 45.1×
- FCF yield
- 2.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- 8.8×
- Price / sales
- 6.14×
- Price / book
- 3.43×
- Market cap
- $67.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $68.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $10.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +10.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +7.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.27
- EPS growth, last FY
- −26.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.4B
- Net income growth
- −26%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 98.6%
- Operating margin
- 52.7%
- Net margin
- 22.3%
- FCF margin
- 13.6%
- Return on equity
- 12%
- Return on invested capital
- 22%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $120M
- Total debt
- $1.1B
- Net cash
- −$987M
- Debt / equity
- 0.06×
- Interest coverage
- 2.4×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.5B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 3.75%$2.5B paid
- Payout ratio
- 103%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $5M
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From TC Energy’s SEC filings, reported in CAD and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $29.00 · FCF value $101.82
Assumes 7.4% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 7.4% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.43 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, converted from CAD at 0.7168), from the 40-F filed Feb 13, 2026. Net debt $987M, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 66 · 5 days +3.4%
The business
FCF $4.1B · Sales +6%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$4.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin26%
- Gross margin50%
- Operating margin45%
- Return on invested capital6%
- Return on equity13%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+6%
- Net debt / EBITDA5.4×
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.64
- Year-ago EPS$0.56
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
TRP is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.