QualityDipStocks / Finance · Brokers & investment banks
Tradeweb Markets TW
Not in a dip by our rules: 3% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $168.89+38%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −3%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.25
5 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $122.54
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$91.50−25.3%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$122.54you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$126.57+3.3%
- Fair value est.base case$168.89+37.8%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, TW’s free cash flow would need to grow about 9% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TW moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.4× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.25
- Volatility
- 31% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.10
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.20
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $168.89, 38% above the price.
ValuationP/E of 28.4× is 38% below its own average of 45.9× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 62% to $3.78 in FY2025.
GrowthSales compounded 20% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 3 of 5
ValuationP/E of 28.4× vs a 13.5× median for the 151 Finance companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 0.4%, below the 2.2% median for the 132 Finance companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 3.9×, above the 1.8× median for the 143 Finance companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Tradeweb Markets in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Brokers & investment banks
All fundamentals
P/E 28.4 · FCF yield 4.5% · ROE 14%
Valuation
- P/E
- 28.4×3-yr-end avg 45.9× · Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- 22.4×
- FCF yield
- 4.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 11.32×
- Price / book
- 3.90×
- Market cap
- $25.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +14.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +20.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.26
- EPS growth, last FY
- +62.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $909M
- Net income growth
- +44%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 44.1%
- Net margin
- 39.8%
- FCF margin
- 50.6%
- Return on equity
- 14%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $2.1B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 490.2×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.2B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +10%
- Dividend yield
- 0.44%$114M paid
- Payout ratio
- 13%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $551M2.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $110M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Tradeweb Markets’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $168.89
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 20.0% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $5.47 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 71 · 5 days 0.0%
The business
FCF $1.1B · Sales +15%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.9%
- Return on equity14%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+15%
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when TW fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on TW or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.