QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Metal Fabrications
Valmont Industries VMI
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 28% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 4% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $250.42−41%
- Market Value
- $438.58price −4%
- Off 52-wk high
- −28%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.17
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $422.10
- Fair value est.base case$250.42−40.7%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$379.21−10.2%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$422.10you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 20$438.58+3.9%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$583.55+38.2%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, VMI’s free cash flow would need to grow about 12% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much VMI moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 2.4× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.17
- Volatility
- 31% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.49
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.48
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 15.5× vs a 27.5× median for the 130 Industrials companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 31% over the last 12 months, up 10 points in two years.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 23%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
Balance sheetPaid down debt: $796M at FY2025, 28% less than at FY2023.
ValuationTrades 3.8% below its Market Value of $438.58, the average price paid since the Oct 20 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $250.42, 41% below the price.
GrowthSales grew only −1.9% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 25% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales grew 4.6% over the last 12 months, below the 9.3% median for the 147 Industrials companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 0.7%, below the 1.1% median for the 116 Industrials companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Valmont Industries in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Metal Fabrications
All fundamentals
P/E 15.5 · FCF yield 3.7% · ROE 31%
Valuation
- P/E
- 15.5×Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 26.7×
- FCF yield
- 3.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- 12.5×
- Price / sales
- 1.91×
- Price / book
- 4.65×
- Market cap
- $8.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $8.8B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $4.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +4.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −1.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $26.87
- EPS growth, last FY
- −2.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $528M
- Net income growth
- +126%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 30.3%
- Operating margin
- 14.2%
- Net margin
- 12.3%
- FCF margin
- 7.1%
- Return on equity
- 31%
- Return on invested capital
- 23%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $122M
- Total debt
- $756M
- Net cash
- −$634M
- Debt / equity
- 0.43×
- Interest coverage
- 16.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $306M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −25%
- Dividend yield
- 0.69%$56M paid
- Payout ratio
- 11%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $272M3.3% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −2.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $23M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 26, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 26, 2026. From Valmont Industries’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $250.42 · MV $438.58 · FCF value $165.28
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -1.9% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $15.80 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 26, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 27, 2026. Net debt $634M, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 30 · 5 days −3.0%
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +6%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin3%
- Gross margin30%
- Operating margin15%
- Return on invested capital20%
- Return on equity30%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+6%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.1×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
VMI is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.