QualityDipStocks / Utilities · Electric utilities
Vistra VST
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 28% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate, 9% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $146.81+6%
- Market Value
- $152.12price −9%
- Off 52-wk high
- −28%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.57
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $138.37
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$134.71−2.6%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$138.37you are here
- Fair value est.base case$146.81+6.1%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 5$152.12+9.9%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$193.04+39.5%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 8.9% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 6.9%; bull = 8.5% and 10.9% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, VST’s free cash flow would need to grow about 8% a year for five years; our estimate uses 9%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much VST moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.9× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.57
- Volatility
- 50% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.40
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.42
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 39% over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 36% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 4.8% (price / FCF 20.8×): $2.3B of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 8.9% a year over the last three fiscal years, above the 3.1% median for the 56 Utilities companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 9.0% below its Market Value of $152.12, the average price paid since the Oct 5 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 69% to $2.18 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 10.7% in FY2025 from 18.0% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetDebt rose 31% to $18.8B from FY2023 to FY2025.
Balance sheetNet debt of $19.2B, 41% of the market cap (Jun 30, 2026).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Vistra in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Electric utilities
All fundamentals
P/E 23.2 · FCF yield 4.8% · ROE 39%
Valuation
- P/E
- 23.2×Utilities median 21.2×
- Price / FCF
- 20.8×
- FCF yield
- 4.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- 12.2×
- Price / sales
- 2.44×
- Price / book
- 8.56×
- Market cap
- $46.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $66.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $19.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +3.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +8.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $5.93
- EPS growth, last FY
- −68.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.0B
- Net income growth
- −8%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 18.5%
- Net margin
- 10.6%
- FCF margin
- 11.7%
- Return on equity
- 39%
- Return on invested capital
- 11%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $435M
- Total debt
- $19.6B
- Net cash
- −$19.2B
- Debt / equity
- 3.57×
- Interest coverage
- 3.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $2.3B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +36%
- Dividend yield
- 0.66%$308M paid
- Payout ratio
- 15%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.1B2.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $134M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Vistra’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $146.81 · MV $152.12 · FCF value $164.55
Assumes 8.9% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 8.9% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $6.65 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 10, 2026. Net debt $19.2B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 42 · 5 days −1.3%
The business
FCF $2.2B · Sales −6%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin12%
- Gross margin38%
- Operating margin19%
- Return on invested capital13%
- Return on equity42%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−6%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.0×
Next report
Nov 6
- DateFri Nov 6, before the open
- Consensus EPS$2.26
- Year-ago EPS$1.75
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
VST is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.