QualityDipStocks / Finance · Property-Casualty Insurers
Arch Capital Group ACGL
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s at its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $127.05+19%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.36
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $106.36
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$86.00−19.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$106.36you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$106.48+0.1%
- Fair value est.base case$127.05+19.5%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 19.9% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 17.9%; bull = 8.5% and 21.9%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ACGL would need a return on equity of about 16% a year; our estimate uses 20%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ACGL moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.36
- Volatility
- 21% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.22
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.41
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur residual-income fair value estimate is $127.05, 19% above the price.
Cash returnsShare count down 8.2% in a year: $3.5B of buybacks over 12 months.
GrowthSales compounded 28% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 7.8× vs a 13.5× median for the 151 Finance companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 20% over the last 12 months.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales growth slowed to 0% over the last 12 months, from 28% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 6 points in two fiscal years, to 18% in FY2025.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 3.7% in the last fiscal year, below the 17% median for the 137 Finance companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Arch Capital Group in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Property-Casualty Insurers
All fundamentals
P/E 7.8 · ROE 20% · Sales +0%
Valuation
- P/E
- 7.8×Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Price / sales
- 1.89×
- Price / book
- 1.51×
- Market cap
- $36.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $19.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +0.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +27.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $12.78
- EPS growth, last FY
- +3.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $4.7B
- Net income growth
- +26%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 24.2%
- FCF margin
- 31.5%
- Return on equity
- 20%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.1B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for an insurer
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $6.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −1%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $3.5B9.6% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −8.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $146M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Arch Capital Group’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $127.05
Financials model (residual income): book value $69.20 a share on Jun 30, 2026 (preferred stock excluded), plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 19.9%, the average of 20.3% for the trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026 and 19.4% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 100% of earnings (dividends 41% + net buybacks 72%; capped at 100%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 10-Q filed Aug 4, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 70 · 5 days +4.6%
The business
FCF $5.6B · Sales −10%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$5.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield15.9%
- Return on equity18%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−10%
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
ACGL is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.