QualityDipStocks / Finance · Property-Casualty Insurers
American Financial Group AFG
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s at its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate, 7% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $141.04−8%
- Market Value
- $144.11price +7%
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.21
2 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $153.87
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$124.18−19.3%
- Fair value est.base case$141.04−8.3%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$144.11−6.3%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$153.87at the price
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$153.87you are here
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 21.2% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 19.2%; bull = 8.5% and 23.2%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, AFG would need a return on equity of about 23% a year; our estimate uses 21%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AFG moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.4× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.21
- Volatility
- 18% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.15
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.30
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 2 of 5
Cash returnsDividend yield of 4.5% ($576M paid over 12 months, 60% of earnings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 20% over the last 12 months.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales fell 0.2% over the last 12 months, below the 11% median for the 142 Finance companies we cover.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 4.6% in the last fiscal year, below the 17% median for the 137 Finance companies we cover.
ProfitabilityNet margin of 12%, below the 21% median for the 142 Finance companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 2.6×, above the 1.8× median for the 143 Finance companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 6.8% above its Market Value of $144.11, the average price paid since the Aug 5 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on American Financial Group in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Property-Casualty Insurers
All fundamentals
P/E 13.4 · ROE 20% · Sales −0%
Valuation
- P/E
- 13.4×Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Price / sales
- 1.54×
- Price / book
- 2.65×
- Market cap
- $12.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $13.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $8.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −0.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +5.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $11.44
- EPS growth, last FY
- −4.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $953M
- Net income growth
- +25%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Operating margin
- 14.5%
- Net margin
- 11.5%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 20%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.4B
- Total debt
- $1.8B
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for an insurer
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 4.51%$576M paid
- Payout ratio
- 60%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $88M0.7% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From American Financial Group’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $141.04 · MV $144.11
Financials model (residual income): book value $59.85 a share on Jun 30, 2026, plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 21.2%, the average of 19.8% for the trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026 and 22.5% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 68% of earnings (dividends 60% + net buybacks 7%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 70 · 5 days +2.2%
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +6%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.1%
- Return on equity20%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+6%
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, after the close
- Consensus EPS$3.50
- Year-ago EPS$2.69
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
AFG is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.