QualityDipStocks / Finance · Property-Casualty Insurers
Hanover Insurance Group THG
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s at its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $194.93−19%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.25
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $242.09
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$167.57−30.8%
- Fair value est.base case$194.93−19.5%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$242.09at the price
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$242.09you are here
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, THG would need a return on equity of about 18% a year; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much THG moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.25
- Volatility
- 21% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.15
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.31
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 55% to $18.16 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 22% over the last 12 months, up 17 points in two years.
Cash returnsShare count down 2.5% in a year: $283M of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 11.1×, below the 13.5× median for the 151 Finance companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur residual-income fair value estimate is $194.93, 19% below the price.
ProfitabilityNet margin of 11%, below the 21% median for the 142 Finance companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 5.0% over the last 12 months, below the 11% median for the 142 Finance companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 2.4×, above the 1.8× median for the 143 Finance companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 6.4% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 9.3% median for the 144 Finance companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Hanover Insurance Group in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Property-Casualty Insurers
All fundamentals
P/E 11.1 · ROE 22% · Sales +5%
Valuation
- P/E
- 11.1×Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Price / sales
- 1.22×
- Price / book
- 2.42×
- Market cap
- $8.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $8.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $6.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +5.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +6.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $20.89
- EPS growth, last FY
- +55.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $750M
- Net income growth
- +19%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Operating margin
- 15.2%
- Net margin
- 11.0%
- FCF margin
- 17.8%
- Return on equity
- 22%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $506M
- Total debt
- $844M
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for an insurer
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.2B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +21%
- Dividend yield
- 1.60%$133M paid
- Payout ratio
- 18%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $283M3.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −2.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $38M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Hanover Insurance Group’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $194.93
Financials model (residual income): book value $116.21 a share on Sep 30, 2026, plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 15.0%, the average of 19.7% for the trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026 and 10.4% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 50% of earnings (dividends 18% + net buybacks 33%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 67 · 5 days +1.8%
The business
FCF $1.1B · Sales +4%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield12.9%
- Return on equity22%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+4%
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
THG is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.