QualityDipStocks / Finance · Property-Casualty Insurers
Assured Guaranty AGO
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 22% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Deepest drop from a 52-week high in over 3 years
- Share count down 18% in 2 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $100.87+40%
- Market Value
- $71.76at the price
- Off 52-wk high
- −22%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.07
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Repricing: business changed
The price is 22% below its 52-week high (Dec 18), but the business held up: shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more.
Some numbers held up (shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more), others slipped (revenue −5.0%, revenue growth rate −5.4 pts). The price is 22% below its 52-week high.
The price is 22% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue −5.0%, revenue growth rate −5.4 pts.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 7 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$989M → $940M (−5.0%)changed
- Revenue growth rate−5.2% → −10.6% a year (−5.4 pts)changed
- Earnings per share, 12 months$8.33 → $7.91 (−5.0%)about the same
- Shares outstanding−8.4% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Finance)stock −22%, sector median +8% since Dec 18changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −22%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −5% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/E 11.1× at the high → 9.1× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
52-wk high: P/E 11.1×; 52-wk low: P/E 8.7×; now: P/E 9.1×.
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $92.18Dec 18 | $67.72Sep 30 | $71.93 |
| P/E | 11.1× | 8.7× | 9.1× |
What this means: a lower P/E than at the high means you pay less for each dollar of profit than buyers did then.
How it’s computed
Banks, insurers and lenders: cash flow includes deposits and loans, so a cash-flow model doesn't fit; we show P/E at each point instead. P/E = that day's close × diluted shares / 12-month net income, using only the filings that were public on that day.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 6.6% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 4.6%; bull = 8.5% and 8.6%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, AGO would need a return on equity of about 4% a year; our estimate uses 7%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AGO moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.9× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.07
- Volatility
- 24% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.04
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.15
How it ranks
Where AGO stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 3 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate40% · price below our base caseTop 24%of 1,314
- Dividends + buybacks yield14% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 2%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−11% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 3%of 1,814
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $100.87 · MV $71.76
Financials model (residual income): book value $132.11 a share on Jun 30, 2026, plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 6.6%, the average of 6.0% for the trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026 and 7.2% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 100% of earnings (dividends 20% + net buybacks 106%; capped at 100%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 10-Q filed Aug 7, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur residual-income fair value estimate is $100.87, 40% above the price.
Cash returnsShare count down 9.7% in a year: $369M of buybacks over 12 months.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 49% to $10.26 in FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 9.1× vs a 13.6× median for the 291 Finance companies we cover.
GrowthSales compounded 15% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales growth slowed to −11% over the last 12 months, from 15% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
GrowthSales fell 11% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity is only 6% over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
RiskReports earnings Nov 5 (consensus EPS $1.71): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 9.1 · ROE 6% · Sales −11%
Valuation
- P/E
- 9.1×Finance median 13.6×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Price / sales
- 3.37×
- Price / book
- 0.57×
- Market cap
- $3.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $4.5B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $940M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −10.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +15.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $7.52
- EPS growth, last FY
- +49.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $348M
- Net income growth
- −25%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 37.0%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 6%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $331M
- Total debt
- $1.7B
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for an insurer
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 2.15%$68M paid
- Payout ratio
- 20%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $369M11.7% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −9.7%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Assured Guaranty’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.0B · Sales 0%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield0.3%
- Return on equity7%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)0%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $71.93
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$67.72−5.9%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 6$71.76−0.2%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$71.93you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$92.18+28.2%
- Fair value est.base case$100.87+40.2%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 58 · 5 days +2.6%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, after the close
- Consensus EPS$1.71
- Year-ago EPS$2.57
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
AGO is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Assured Guaranty in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Property-Casualty Insurers
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.