How to use QualityDip

Where to find what

The bar at the bottom of your phone (the top menu on a computer) has the five main places. Everything else lives in Menu.

How to read a row

Every list on the site uses the same row. This one is APP from the Dips list when this page was built; the live lists update every few minutes.

1. Ticker and company. The small line under it says which list it qualifies for (deep dip, dip watch) or, on Reversals, when the signal fired, its stop and which rule fired.
2. Sparkline. The last six months of closing prices (on Drops, today’s moves). Green if it ended higher than it started, red if lower.
3. Price and today’s move. The latest price and the change since yesterday’s close.
4. The one key number for that list. Dips and Drops: % off the 52-week high. Reversals: % since the signal. Setting up: % still to go to the trigger. On Dips you can switch it to the fair value or Market Value gap.

Tap any row to open the stock’s page.

How to read a stock page

From the top of the APP page (numbers from the last close, when this page was built). Open the live APP page.

What every term means

Signals

Reversal signal

A published rule saying a quality stock that is already in a dip may be turning back up. Three rules, fixed in advance, each with a stop. It is a timing signal, not a forecast.

R1 · Capitulation reversal

A heavy sell-off day (at least 2× normal volume, down 2.5%+, a new 20-day low) in the last 10 sessions, no lower low since, and the price climbs back above that day’s high. Fires during the day the moment it happens.

R2 · Reversal candle at value

A classic turn pattern (a bullish engulfing or morning-star candle) at a 20-day low, while the stock is in a deep dip or 5%+ below its Market Value. Judged on the closing price.

R3 · Oversold MACD turn

The MACD momentum line turns up from deeply negative territory while the stock is in a deep dip or 5%+ below its Market Value. Judged on the closing price.

Setting up (armed)

R1’s first half has happened (the heavy sell-off day, no lower low since) and it is waiting for the price to clear that day’s high, the trigger. “% to trigger” is how far the price still has to rise.

Dips

% off high

How far today’s price is below the highest price of the past 52 weeks. −30% means it would need to rise about 43% to get back to the high.

Dip watch

A quality stock 15%+ below its 52-week high and under its 50-day average, or 7%+ below its Market Value.

Deep dip

A quality stock 25%+ below its 52-week high and under its 200-day average, or 20%+ off the high and 12%+ below its Market Value. Deeper than dip watch; this is where the signals look.

Quality stock

One of the 332 US companies worth $20B+ that pass four checks: it generates cash, earns a good return on capital, sales aren’t shrinking, and debt is manageable. We also track 667 more for reference; they never trigger alerts.

Value

Fair value estimate

Our base-case estimate of what one share is worth, from the company’s own cash flows in its SEC filings (ten-year discounted cash flow), or book value and return on equity for banks and insurers. It is a model, not a forecast of where the price will go. “+24% to fair value est.” means the estimate is 24% above today’s price. Today 759 of 1,001 companies have one.

Why some stocks show no fair value estimate

We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number. No estimate is shown when:

• the business burned cash over the last 12 months, so a cash-flow model has nothing to grow (92)
• the model gives an extreme or unstable answer (for example a one-off spike in spending, or a loss-making year or two) (66)
• its SEC filings don’t give us the numbers we need (common for some foreign filers) (53)
• we can’t pin down a reliable share count (12)
• its latest filing is too old (11)

Market Value

The average price investors have actually paid for the stock since the company’s last thesis-changing SEC filing (usually its earnings report). Below it means the stock trades under what the market agreed it was worth after the latest news. It needs 5 trading days of data before we show it (until then: “forming”).

Risk and levels

Stop

A reference price under the recent low where a signal’s setup would be proven wrong. Shown with its distance, for example “stop $39.57 (−10.1%)”. It is information, not an order; we never place trades.

Risk gauge

The dial on each stock page. It shows beta: how much the stock moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 over the past year (1.0 = moves with the market, Low under 0.7, High 1.5 and up), next to its volatility. Past behavior, not a forecast.

Key levels

One line with every price that matters for a stock: today’s price, Market Value, the fair value estimate, a setup’s trigger and stop, and the 52-week low and high, each with its distance from the price.

Proof and freshness

The ledger (track record)

Every alert we log, with its date, price and rule, then tracked against the S&P 500 from that moment. Rows are only ever added; a correction is a new row pointing to the old one.

Hash chain

Each ledger row carries a SHA-256 fingerprint of its contents plus the previous row’s fingerprint. Change any old row and every fingerprint after it breaks, so the record can’t be quietly edited. The current fingerprint is printed at the bottom of every page.

Live price stamp

The line under the header, like “Live prices · updated 12:55 pm ET”. While the US market is open, prices, day moves and the lists refresh about every 5 minutes. Outside market hours it reads “Prices as of” the last update. Valuations update once a day after the close.