QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Engineering & Construction
Argan AGX
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 58% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 12% under its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
Worth knowing
- Down 58% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 29%
- Deepest drop from a 52-week high in over 3 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $379.52price −12%
- Off 52-wk high
- −58%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.67
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 58% below its 52-week high (Jun 30), but the business held up: revenue +14.0%, revenue growth rate +14.5 pts, earnings per share +11.4%.
Some numbers held up (revenue +14.0%, revenue growth rate +14.5 pts, earnings per share +11.4%), others slipped. The price is 58% below its 52-week high.
The price is 58% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$1.0B → $1.2B (+14.0%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+14.5% → +29.0% a year (+14.5 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$11.36 → $12.66 (+11.4%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$487M → $546M (+12.1%)held up
- Operating margin14.9% → 15.4% (+0.4 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding−0.2% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −58%, sector median +2% since Jun 30changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −58%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +12% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 23.3× at the high → 8.7× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Apr 30, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jul 31, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($798.55, Jun 30) the price assumed about 10%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($296.56, Dec 17) about 2%; today about −8%. The last 3 years delivered 28%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 28%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $798.55Jun 30 | $296.56Dec 17 | $334.12 |
| Implied growth | +10% | +2% | −8% |
| P/E | 70.3× | 35.0× | 26.4× |
| P/FCF | 23.3× | 14.8× | 8.7× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for AGX: the model gives 256% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, AGX’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 8% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AGX moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 6.1× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.67
- Volatility
- 78% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.28
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.36
How it ranks
Where AGX stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 4 measures
- Free cash flow yield12% · free cash flow vs market capTop 8%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0.9% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 29%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+29% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 16%of 1,814
- Operating margin15% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 39%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $379.52 · FCF value $835.30
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 11.5% (price / FCF 8.7×): $546M of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 58% to $9.74 in FY2026.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 289% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales compounded 28% a year from FY2023 to FY2026.
ValuationTrades 12.0% below its Market Value of $379.52, the average price paid since the Sep 2 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationPrice / book of 9.3×, above the 3.2× median for the 336 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 0.6%, below the 1.8% median for the 229 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationP/E of 26.4×, above the 20.7× median for the 341 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count up 0.2% over 12 months, above the −1.7% median for the 310 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 1.67 vs the S&P 500 and 78% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
All fundamentals
P/E 26.4 · FCF yield 11.5% · ROE 40%
Valuation
- P/E
- 26.4×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- 8.7×
- FCF yield
- 11.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.98×
- Price / book
- 9.34×
- Market cap
- $4.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +29.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +27.6%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $12.66
- EPS growth, last FY
- +58.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $179M
- Net income growth
- +53%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 20.9%
- Operating margin
- 15.4%
- Net margin
- 15.1%
- FCF margin
- 45.9%
- Return on equity
- 40%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $548M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $546M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +289%
- Dividend yield
- 0.59%$28M paid
- Payout ratio
- 16%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $12M0.3% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $9M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 31, 2026. From Argan’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.5B · Sales +62%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield11.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin39%
- Gross margin21%
- Operating margin15%
- Return on equity40%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+62%
- Net debt / EBITDA−5.5×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $334.12
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$296.56−11.2%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$334.12you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 2$379.52+13.6%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$798.55+139.0%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 37 · 5 days +1.5%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
AGX is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Argan in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer Discretionary
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.