QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Medical Specialities
Alignment Healthcare ALHC
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 71% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Down 72% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 36%
- Net cash = 29% of its market cap
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $11.40+63%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −71%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.44
52-week range at its 52-week low
Price $7.00Fair value est. $11.40
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Mixed signals
The price is 71% below its 52-week high (Jul 6), but the business held up: revenue +16.1%, earnings per share +49.2%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more.
Some numbers held up (revenue +16.1%, earnings per share +49.2%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more), others slipped (free cash flow −65.9%, revenue growth rate −5.9 pts). The price is 71% below its 52-week high.
The price is 71% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: free cash flow −65.9%, revenue growth rate −5.9 pts.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$4.3B → $4.9B (+16.1%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+41.8% → +35.9% a year (−5.9 pts)changed
- Earnings per share, 12 months$0.09 → $0.14 (+49.2%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$226M → $77M (−65.9%)changed
- Operating margin0.8% → 0.9% (0.0 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding−2.1% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+1.1% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Health Care)stock −71%, sector median +2% since Jul 6changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −71%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +16% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 23.2× at the high → 19.0× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($24.56, Jul 6) the price assumed about 10%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($7.00, Nov 2) about 6%; today about 6%. The last 3 years delivered 40%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 40%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $24.56Jul 6 | $7.00Nov 2 | $7.00 |
| Implied growth | +10% | +6% | +6% |
| P/E | 264.3× | 50.5× | 50.5× |
| P/FCF | 23.2× | 19.0× | 19.0× |
| EV/Sales | 1.1× | 0.2× | 0.2× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ALHC’s free cash flow would need to grow about 6% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ALHC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 5.5× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.44
- Volatility
- 70% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.08
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.03
How it ranks
Where ALHC stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate63% · price below our base caseTop 18%of 1,507
- Free cash flow yield5.3% · free cash flow vs market capTop 38%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+36% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 12%of 2,184
- Operating margin0.9% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 17%of 1,549
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $11.40 · FCF value $9.33
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 40.2% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.37 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026. Net cash $418M, not added.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $11.40, 63% above the price.
GrowthSales compounded 40% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Balance sheetNet cash of $418M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Sep 30, 2026).
GrowthSales grew 36% to $4.9B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 0.4% in FY2025 from −7.0% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 4 of 5
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 2.6× over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 49% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ValuationP/E of 50.5× vs a 28.9× median for the 161 Health Care companies we cover.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 1.2×, above the 0.5× median for the 161 Health Care companies we cover.
All fundamentals
P/E 50.5 · FCF yield 5.3% · ROE 13%
Valuation
- P/E
- 50.5×Health Care median 28.9×
- Price / FCF
- 19.0×
- FCF yield
- 5.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 13.9×
- Price / sales
- 0.30×
- Price / book
- 5.27×
- Market cap
- $1.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $1.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $4.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +35.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +40.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.14
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $29M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 0.9%
- Net margin
- 0.6%
- FCF margin
- 1.6%
- Return on equity
- 13%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $743M
- Total debt
- $324M
- Net cash
- $418M
- Debt / equity
- 1.17×
- Interest coverage
- 2.6×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $77M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −49%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $63M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Alignment Healthcare’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +37%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin2%
- Gross margin12%
- Operating margin0%
- Return on equity13%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+37%
- Net debt / EBITDA−5.5×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $7.00
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$7.00you are here
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$7.00at the price
- Fair value est.base case$11.40+62.8%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$24.56+250.9%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 30 · 5 days −11.3%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
ALHC is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Alignment Healthcare in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Medical Specialities
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.