QualityDipStocks / Technology · Software
Alkami Technology ALKT
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 44% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Lowest close since May 2023
- Down 46% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 24%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $15.65+17%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −44%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.87
52-week range 8% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $13.34Fair value est. $15.65
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 44% below its 52-week high (Jan 5), but the business held up: revenue +24.0%, free cash flow +73.9%, operating margin +7.1 pts.
Some numbers held up (revenue +24.0%, free cash flow +73.9%, operating margin +7.1 pts), others slipped (revenue growth rate −6.7 pts). The price is 44% below its 52-week high.
The price is 44% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue growth rate −6.7 pts.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 8 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$413M → $512M (+24.0%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+30.7% → +24.0% a year (−6.7 pts)changed
- Free cash flow, 12 months$31M → $54M (+73.9%)held up
- Operating margin−12.8% → −5.7% (+7.1 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding+2.2% (more shares, each owns less)about the same
- Stock vs its sector (Technology)stock −44%, sector median +7% since Jan 5changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −44%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +49% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 79.4× at the high → 26.3× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($23.67, Jan 5) the price assumed about 33%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($12.40, Oct 30) about 11%; today about 12%. The last 3 years delivered 30%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 30%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $23.67Jan 5 | $12.40Oct 30 | $13.34 |
| Implied growth | +33% | +11% | +12% |
| P/FCF | 79.4× | 24.5× | 26.3× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ALKT’s free cash flow would need to grow about 12% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ALKT moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 4.3× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.87
- Volatility
- 55% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.20
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.15
How it ranks
Where ALKT stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 4 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate17% · price below our base caseTop 36%of 1,507
- Free cash flow yield3.8% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 49%of 1,690
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+24% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 21%of 2,184
- Operating margin−5.7% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 9%of 1,549
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $15.65 · FCF value $11.91
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 29.5% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.51 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to −12.1% in FY2025 from −24.1% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $15.65, 17% above the price.
GrowthSales compounded 30% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 74% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales grew 24% to $512M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only -3.3× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLost $37M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityLoses money at the operating line: −6% operating margin over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of −10%, below the 11% median for the 304 Technology companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; debt load unclear or high.
All fundamentals
FCF yield 3.8% · ROE -10% · Sales +24%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 26.3×
- FCF yield
- 3.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 2.78×
- Price / book
- 3.96×
- Market cap
- $1.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $512M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +24.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +29.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$0.35
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$37M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 57.5%
- Operating margin
- −5.7%
- Net margin
- −7.2%
- FCF margin
- 10.6%
- Return on equity
- −10%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $50M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- -3.3×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $54M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +74%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +2.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $74M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Alkami Technology’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +19%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.8%
- Gross margin57%
- Operating margin−4%
- Return on invested capital−3%
- Return on equity−10%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+19%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $13.34
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$12.40−7.0%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$13.34you are here
- Fair value est.base case$15.65+17.3%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$23.67+77.4%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 39 · 5 days −15.1%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
ALKT is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Alkami Technology in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.