QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Pharmaceuticals
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals ALNY
Deep dip with a setup armed: a close above $180.61 triggers it. 65% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $180.21+9%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −65%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.54
5 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $165.00
- Stopreference, not an order$163.30−1.0%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$165.00you are here
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$165.00at the price
- Fair value est.base case$180.21+9.2%
- Triggerclose above fires the setup$180.61+9.5%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$473.29+186.8%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ALNY’s free cash flow would need to grow about 13% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ALNY moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 4.2× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.54
- Volatility
- 54% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.13
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.06
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 56% to $5.0B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 13.5% in FY2025 from −15.4% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 53% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 65% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
SetupA capitulation-reversal setup is armed: a close above $180.61 triggers it, with a reference stop at $163.30.
Top bearish points 3 of 5
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 81.8% in FY2025 from 85.3% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsShare count up 0.5% over 12 months, above the −1.0% median for the 93 Health Care companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 6.3×, above the 5.2× median for the 93 Health Care companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Alnylam Pharmaceuticals in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Pharmaceuticals
All fundamentals
P/E 8.6 · FCF yield 3.5% · ROE 138%
Valuation
- P/E
- 8.6×Health Care median 29.2×
- Price / FCF
- 28.2×
- FCF yield
- 3.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 4.54×
- Price / book
- 6.32×
- Market cap
- $22.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $5.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +56.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +53.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $19.24
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.6B
- Net income growth
- n/an/m: earnings a year ago near zero
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 77.4%
- Operating margin
- 19.5%
- Net margin
- 52.8%
- FCF margin
- 16.1%
- Return on equity
- 138%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $3.6B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 3.2×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $806M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +382%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $308M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Alnylam Pharmaceuticals’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $180.21 · FCF value $143.40
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 53.0% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $5.84 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026.
Setup & signals
Armed · trigger $180.61
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 22 · 5 days −26.3%
The business
FCF $0.8B · Sales +17%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.8B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin16%
- Gross margin77%
- Operating margin20%
- Return on invested capital17%
- Return on equity188%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+17%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.4×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
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