QualityDipStocks / Technology · Software
Alarm.com ALRM
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 1% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate, 15% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $63.94−3%
- Market Value
- $57.35price +15%
- Off 52-wk high
- −1%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.42
5 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 1% below its 52-week high (Oct 29), but the business held up: shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts, free cash flow 0.0%.
Some numbers held up (shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts, free cash flow 0.0%), others slipped. The price is 1% below its 52-week high.
The price is 1% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($66.54, Oct 29) the price assumed about 7%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($42.13, May 12) about 1%; today about 7%. The last 3 years delivered 69%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 69%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $66.54Oct 29 | $42.13May 12 | $66.03 |
| Implied growth | +7% | +1% | +7% |
| P/E | 31.6× | 18.5× | 31.3× |
| P/FCF | 19.8× | 14.1× | 19.7× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 6.3% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 4.3%; bull = 8.5% and 8.3% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ALRM’s free cash flow would need to grow about 7% a year for five years; our estimate uses 6%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ALRM moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.4× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.42
- Volatility
- 30% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.18
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.07
How it ranks
Where ALRM stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate3% · price above our base caseTop 47%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield5.1% · free cash flow vs market capTop 39%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield2.1% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 41%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+8.7% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 46%of 1,814
- Operating margin13% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 48%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $63.94 · MV $57.35 · FCF value $51.59
Assumes 6.3% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 6.3% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $3.36 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsShare count down 7.0% in a year: $76M of buybacks over 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 13.2% in FY2025 from 7.6% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.1% (price / FCF 19.7×): $188M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 66.1% in FY2025 from 63.1% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales grew 9% to $1.1B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 3 of 5
GrowthSales grew 6.3% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 11% median for the 282 Technology companies we cover.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 7.4% in the last fiscal year, below the 16% median for the 168 Technology companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 15.1% above its Market Value of $57.35, the average price paid since the Aug 6 filing.
All fundamentals
P/E 31.3 · FCF yield 5.1% · ROE 14%
Valuation
- P/E
- 31.3×Technology median 33.0×
- Price / FCF
- 19.7×
- FCF yield
- 5.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.48×
- Price / book
- 4.27×
- Market cap
- $3.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +8.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +6.3%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.26
- EPS growth, last FY
- +7.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $118M
- Net income growth
- −9%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 65.8%
- Operating margin
- 12.8%
- Net margin
- 11.1%
- FCF margin
- 17.7%
- Return on equity
- 14%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $479M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 8.6×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $188M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +14%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $76M2.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −7.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $30M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Alarm.com’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +9%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin9%
- Gross margin66%
- Operating margin15%
- Return on invested capital13%
- Return on equity13%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+9%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.5×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $66.03
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$42.13−36.2%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 6$57.35−13.1%
- Fair value est.base case$63.94−3.2%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$66.03you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$66.54+0.8%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 77 · 5 days +2.2%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.66
- Year-ago EPS$0.66
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
ALRM is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Alarm.com in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.