QualityDipStocks / Finance · Investment Managers
Affiliated Managers Group AMG
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 4% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 3% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $627.31+64%
- Market Value
- $370.25price +3%
- Off 52-wk high
- −4%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 0.98
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $381.57
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$236.68−38.0%
- Market Valueavg paid since Jul 30$370.25−3.0%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$381.57you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$399.02+4.6%
- Fair value est.base case$627.31+64.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, AMG’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 6% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AMG moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 2.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.98
- Volatility
- 33% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.38
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.29
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $627.31, 64% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 10.4% (price / FCF 9.6×): $1.1B of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsShare count down 14.3% in a year: $794M of buybacks over 12 months.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 50% to $22.74 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 27% over the last 12 months, up 3 points in two years.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales shrank 4% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationPrice / book of 3.4×, above the 1.8× median for the 143 Finance companies we cover.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 1.0×, above the 0.8× median for the 22 Finance companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 4.3× EBITDA (limit 3×).
RiskReports earnings Nov 2 (consensus EPS $8.70): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Affiliated Managers Group in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Investment Managers
All fundamentals
P/E 12.0 · FCF yield 10.4% · ROE 27%
Valuation
- P/E
- 12.0×Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- 9.6×
- FCF yield
- 10.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 4.52×
- Price / book
- 3.38×
- Market cap
- $10.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $12.9B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +11.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −3.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $28.49
- EPS growth, last FY
- +50.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $856M
- Net income growth
- +94%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 37.7%
- FCF margin
- 46.9%
- Return on equity
- 27%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $411M
- Total debt
- $3.0B
- Net cash
- −$2.6B
- Debt / equity
- 0.99×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +17%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $794M7.7% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −14.3%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- −$16M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Affiliated Managers Group’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $627.31 · MV $370.25 · FCF value $259.32
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -3.8% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $39.59 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 7, 2026. Net debt $2.6B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 50 · 5 days −0.5%
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +30%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin12%
- Gross margin50%
- Operating margin30%
- Return on invested capital10%
- Return on equity24%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+30%
- Net debt / EBITDA4.3×
Next report
Nov 2
- DateMon Nov 2
- Consensus EPS$8.70
- Year-ago EPS$6.10
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
AMG is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.