QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Biotech
Amgen AMGN
Not in a dip: trading near its 52-week high.
A quality company trading near our fair value estimate, 12% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $483.55+4%
- Market Value
- $417.08price +12%
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.44
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $466.01
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$292.00−37.3%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 4$417.08−10.5%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$466.01you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$466.01at the price
- Fair value est.base case$483.55+3.8%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 11.8% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 9.8%; bull = 8.5% and 13.8% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, AMGN’s free cash flow would need to grow about 11% a year for five years; our estimate uses 12%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AMGN moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.3× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.44
- Volatility
- 30% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.19
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.05
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 88% to $14.23 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 91% over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 30% over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 18%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetDebt is 4.9× shareholders’ equity.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 24.7% in FY2025 from 28.0% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationPrice / book of 21.7×, above the 5.2× median for the 93 Health Care companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count up 0.6% over 12 months, above the −1.0% median for the 93 Health Care companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 11.7% above its Market Value of $417.08, the average price paid since the Aug 4 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Amgen in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Biotech
All fundamentals
P/E 29.0 · FCF yield 4.0% · ROE 91%
Valuation
- P/E
- 29.0×3-yr-end avg 26.8× · Health Care median 29.2×
- Price / FCF
- 24.9×
- FCF yield
- 4.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- 18.4×
- Price / sales
- 6.65×
- Price / book
- 21.69×
- Market cap
- $254Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $297B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $38.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +9.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +11.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $16.10
- EPS growth, last FY
- +88.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $8.7B
- Net income growth
- +32%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 69.5%
- Operating margin
- 30.0%
- Net margin
- 23.0%
- FCF margin
- 26.7%
- Return on equity
- 91%
- Return on invested capital
- 18%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $14.0B
- Total debt
- $57.3B
- Net cash
- −$43.3B
- Debt / equity
- 4.90×
- Interest coverage
- 4.3×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $10.2B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −4%
- Dividend yield
- 2.08%$5.3B paid
- Payout ratio
- 60%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $492M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Amgen’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $483.55 · MV $417.08 · FCF value $476.11
Assumes 11.8% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 11.8% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $18.70 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026. Net debt $43.3B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 71 · 5 days +6.1%
The business
FCF $10.2B · Sales +10%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$10.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin27%
- Gross margin70%
- Operating margin30%
- Return on invested capital13%
- Return on equity94%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+10%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.5×
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, after the close
- Consensus EPS$5.74
- Year-ago EPS$5.64
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when AMGN fires a reversal signal
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