QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Biotech
Moderna MRNA
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 10% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 15% over its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: its free cash flow is negative.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $193.13price +15%
- Off 52-wk high
- −10%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.19
3 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $221.72
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$22.36−89.9%
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 1$193.13−12.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$221.72you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$245.81+10.9%
Fair value estimate
No estimate for MRNA: negative free cash flow. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MRNA moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 15.1× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.19
- Volatility
- 194% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.14
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.12
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 55.3% in FY2025 from 31.5% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetNet cash of $4.5B: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Jun 30, 2026).
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.1×, below the 0.7× median for the 67 Health Care companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree cash flow is negative (−$1.2B over the last 12 months), so there’s no cash-flow value under the price.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to −158.1% in FY2025 from −61.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales fell 28% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
ValuationTrades 14.8% above its Market Value of $193.13, the average price paid since the Sep 1 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Moderna in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Biotech
All fundamentals
FCF yield -1.4% · ROE -39% · Sales −28%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- n/anegative free cash flow
- FCF yield
- −1.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anegative EBITDA
- Price / sales
- 39.90×
- Price / book
- 13.15×
- Market cap
- $88.9Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $84.4B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −27.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −53.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$7.98
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$3.2B
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 23.4%
- Operating margin
- −149.0%
- Net margin
- −141.4%
- FCF margin
- −55.8%
- Return on equity
- −39%
- Return on invested capital
- −118%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $5.1B
- Total debt
- $591M
- Net cash
- $4.5B
- Debt / equity
- 0.09×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- −$1.2B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +2.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $462M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Moderna’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
MV $193.13
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 57 · 5 days +10.8%
The business
FCF $-1.2B · Sales +4%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$1.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield−1.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin−56%
- Gross margin23%
- Operating margin−150%
- Return on invested capital−36%
- Return on equity−38%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+4%
Next report
Nov 6
- DateFri Nov 6, before the open
- Consensus EPS($1.10)
- Year-ago EPS($0.51)
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
MRNA is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.