QualityDipStocks / Real Estate · REITs
American Homes 4 Rent of Beneficial Interest AMH
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 9% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $45.62+44%
- Market Value
- $31.96price −1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −9%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.01
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $31.60
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$27.38−13.4%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$31.60you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Jul 30$31.96+1.1%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$34.81+10.2%
- Fair value est.base case$45.62+44.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 7.2% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 5.2%; bull = 8.5% and 9.2% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, AMH’s free cash flow would need to grow about 1% a year for five years; our estimate uses 7%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AMH moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.01
- Volatility
- 20% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.01
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.17
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $45.62, 44% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 7.2% (price / FCF 13.9×): $821M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 4.1% ($463M paid over 12 months, 100% of earnings).
Cash returnsShare count down 2.8% in a year.
ValuationP/E of 24.5×, below the 28.7× median for the 46 Real Estate companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetNet debt of $5.0B, 44% of the market cap (Jun 30, 2026).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity is only 7% over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsDividends take 100% of earnings ($463M paid over 12 months), leaving little to reinvest or raise the payout.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 5.2× EBITDA (limit 3×).
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $0.47): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on American Homes 4 Rent of Beneficial Interest in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in REITs
All fundamentals
P/E 24.5 · FCF yield 7.2% · ROE 7%
Valuation
- P/E
- 24.5×Real Estate median 28.7×
- Price / FCF
- 13.9×
- FCF yield
- 7.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 6.08×
- Price / book
- 1.67×
- Market cap
- $11.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $16.4B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +4.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +7.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.26
- EPS growth, last FY
- +9.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $465M
- Net income growth
- +13%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 24.8%
- FCF margin
- 43.8%
- Return on equity
- 7%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $84M
- Total debt
- $5.1B
- Net cash
- −$5.0B
- Debt / equity
- 0.75×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $821M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +3%
- Dividend yield
- 4.06%$463M paid
- Payout ratio
- 100%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −2.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $25M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From American Homes 4 Rent of Beneficial Interest’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $45.62 · MV $31.96 · FCF value $57.33
Assumes 7.2% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 7.2% a year FY17–FY20), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.27 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Jul 31, 2026. Net debt $5.0B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 54 · 5 days −1.0%
The business
FCF $0.8B · Sales +3%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.8B
- Free-cash-flow yield7.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin44%
- Gross margin57%
- Operating margin26%
- Return on invested capital3%
- Return on equity7%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+3%
- Net debt / EBITDA5.2×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.47
- Year-ago EPS$0.47
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
AMH is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.