QualityDipStocks / Technology · Software
AppFolio APPF
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 19% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $244.62+15%
- Market Value
- $209.18price +2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −19%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.39
5 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $213.25
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$143.34−32.8%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 22$209.18−1.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$213.25you are here
- Fair value est.base case$244.62+14.7%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$262.26+23.0%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, APPF’s free cash flow would need to grow about 12% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much APPF moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.5× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.39
- Volatility
- 45% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.11
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.01
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 16.1% in FY2025 from 0.2% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $244.62, 15% above the price.
GrowthSales compounded 26% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 31% over the last 12 months, up 25 points in two years.
GrowthSales grew 20% to $1.1B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 3 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 30% to $3.88 in FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 44.7× vs a 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 13.0×, above the 7.1× median for the 149 Technology companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on AppFolio in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software
All fundamentals
P/E 44.7 · FCF yield 3.7% · ROE 31%
Valuation
- P/E
- 44.7×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 26.9×
- FCF yield
- 3.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 6.98×
- Price / book
- 13.02×
- Market cap
- $7.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +20.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +26.3%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.75
- EPS growth, last FY
- −30.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $170M
- Net income growth
- −17%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 18.8%
- Net margin
- 15.6%
- FCF margin
- 25.9%
- Return on equity
- 31%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $259M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $282M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +33%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $129M1.7% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $74M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From AppFolio’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $244.62 · MV $209.18 · FCF value $175.27
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 26.3% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $7.93 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 22, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 53 · 5 days +1.2%
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales +19%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin22%
- Gross margin64%
- Operating margin19%
- Return on invested capital141%
- Return on equity31%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+19%
- Net debt / EBITDA−1.3×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
APPF is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.