QualityDipStocks / Basic Materials · Precious Metals
Aris Mining ARIS
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 35% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Down 37% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 82%
- Revenue up 82% in a year, top 4% of the 1820 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $20.82+42%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −35%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.42
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ARIS’s free cash flow would need to grow about 9% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ARIS moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.0× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.42
- Volatility
- 63% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.49
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.47
How it ranks
Where ARIS stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 3 of 4 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate42% · price below our base caseTop 24%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield4.6% · free cash flow vs market capTop 44%of 1,391
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+82% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 3%of 1,814
- Operating margin39% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 6%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $20.82 · FCF value $14.68
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 32.4% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.67 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025), from the 40-F filed Mar 11, 2026. Net debt $128M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 82% to $928M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 193% to $0.41 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 38.7% in FY2025 from 24.3% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 55.3% in FY2025 from 41.5% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 32% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ValuationP/E of 35.8× vs a 17.3× median for the 38 Basic Materials companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity is only 7% over the last 12 months.
RiskSwings hard: beta 2.42 vs the S&P 500 and 63% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $0.37): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 35.8 · FCF yield 4.6% · ROE 7%
Valuation
- P/E
- 35.8×Basic Materials median 17.3×
- Price / FCF
- 21.8×
- FCF yield
- 4.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.03×
- Price / book
- 1.94×
- Market cap
- $2.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $928M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +81.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +32.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.41
- EPS growth, last FY
- +192.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $78M
- Net income growth
- +219%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 55.3%
- Operating margin
- 38.7%
- Net margin
- 8.4%
- FCF margin
- 13.9%
- Return on equity
- 7%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $392M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 9.7×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $129M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Aris Mining’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +62%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin10%
- Gross margin60%
- Operating margin48%
- Return on invested capital26%
- Return on equity19%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+62%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.1×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $14.68
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$9.60−34.6%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$14.68you are here
- Fair value est.base case$20.82+41.8%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$22.68+54.5%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 34 · 5 days −5.7%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.37
- Year-ago EPS$0.32
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
ARIS is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Aris Mining in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Precious Metals
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.