QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Restaurants
Aramark ARMK
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 14% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 5% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $39.02−28%
- Market Value
- $56.77price −5%
- Off 52-wk high
- −14%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.64
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $53.96
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$36.04−33.2%
- Fair value est.base case$39.02−27.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$53.96you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 11$56.77+5.2%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$62.39+15.6%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 10.6% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 8.6%; bull = 8.5% and 12.6% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ARMK’s free cash flow would need to grow about 17% a year for five years; our estimate uses 11%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ARMK moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.64
- Volatility
- 27% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.31
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.23
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 54% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 23% to $1.22 in FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 11% to $19.8B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthSales grew 11% a year over the last three fiscal years, above the 6.1% median for the 179 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 5.0% below its Market Value of $56.77, the average price paid since the Aug 11 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $39.02, 28% below the price.
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to −7.9% in FY2022 from 6.5% in FY2020 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetNet debt of $5.6B, 39% of the market cap (Jul 3, 2026).
ValuationP/E of 37.8× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 4.1× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Aramark in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Restaurants
All fundamentals
P/E 37.8 · FCF yield 3.0% · ROE 12%
Valuation
- P/E
- 37.8×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 33.5×
- FCF yield
- 3.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- 14.5×
- Price / sales
- 0.73×
- Price / book
- 4.27×
- Market cap
- $14.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $20.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $19.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +11.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +10.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.43
- EPS growth, last FY
- +23.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $383M
- Net income growth
- +6%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 4.4%
- Net margin
- 1.9%
- FCF margin
- 2.2%
- Return on equity
- 12%
- Return on invested capital
- 7%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $499M
- Total debt
- $6.1B
- Net cash
- −$5.6B
- Debt / equity
- 1.81×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $433M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +54%
- Dividend yield
- 0.84%$122M paid
- Payout ratio
- 32%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $97M0.7% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +1.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $68M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 3, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 3, 2026. From Aramark’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $39.02 · MV $56.77 · FCF value $33.73
Assumes 10.6% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 10.6% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.61 a share (trailing 12 months to Jul 3, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 11, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 44 · 5 days +2.7%
The business
FCF $0.4B · Sales +9%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin2%
- Gross margin15%
- Operating margin4%
- Return on invested capital7%
- Return on equity12%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+9%
- Net debt / EBITDA4.1×
Next report
Nov 16
- DateMon Nov 16, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.75
- Year-ago EPS$0.64
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
ARMK is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.