QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Restaurants
Texas Roadhouse TXRH
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 15% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate, 4% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $175.75−4%
- Market Value
- $175.33price +4%
- Off 52-wk high
- −15%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.22
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $182.52
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$155.88−14.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 6$175.33−3.9%
- Fair value est.base case$175.75−3.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$182.52you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$214.28+17.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 13.5% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 11.5%; bull = 8.5% and 15.5% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, TXRH’s free cash flow would need to grow about 14% a year for five years; our estimate uses 14%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TXRH moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.5× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.22
- Volatility
- 31% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.09
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.01
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 30%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 27% over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 10% to $6.2B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Balance sheetNet cash of $152M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Jun 30, 2026).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 29.1× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 5.7% in the last fiscal year, below the 4.8% median for the 158 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 3.4%, below the 4.9% median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 16.8×, above the 12.8× median for the 113 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
RiskReports earnings Nov 5 (consensus EPS $1.49): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Texas Roadhouse in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Restaurants
All fundamentals
P/E 29.1 · FCF yield 3.4% · ROE 27%
Valuation
- P/E
- 29.1×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 29.6×
- FCF yield
- 3.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- 16.8×
- Price / sales
- 1.93×
- Price / book
- 7.72×
- Market cap
- $12.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $11.9B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $6.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +9.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +13.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $6.25
- EPS growth, last FY
- −5.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $413M
- Net income growth
- −6%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 7.7%
- Net margin
- 6.6%
- FCF margin
- 6.5%
- Return on equity
- 27%
- Return on invested capital
- 30%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $202M
- Total debt
- $50M
- Net cash
- $152M
- Debt / equity
- 0.03×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $406M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +9%
- Dividend yield
- 1.57%$189M paid
- Payout ratio
- 46%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $162M1.3% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $51M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Texas Roadhouse’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $175.75 · MV $175.33 · FCF value $91.26
Assumes 13.5% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 13.5% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $6.16 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 7, 2026. Net cash $152M, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 65 · 5 days +10.2%
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales +11%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin4%
- Gross margin16%
- Operating margin8%
- Return on invested capital17%
- Return on equity28%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+11%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.2×
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, after the close
- Consensus EPS$1.49
- Year-ago EPS$1.25
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
TXRH is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.