QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Medical instruments
Alphatec ATEC
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 68% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
Worth knowing
- Down 69% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 15%
- Lowest close since Oct 2024
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −68%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.28
52-week range 2% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $7.31
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Mixed signals
The price is 68% below its 52-week high (Jan 8), but the business held up: revenue +15.3%, operating margin +9.8 pts, net cash (cash minus debt) −0.3% of market cap since the high.
Some numbers held up (revenue +15.3%, operating margin +9.8 pts, net cash (cash minus debt) −0.3% of market cap since the high), others slipped (revenue growth rate −11.8 pts, free cash flow −15.0%, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less). The price is 68% below its 52-week high.
The price is 68% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue growth rate −11.8 pts, free cash flow −15.0%, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$728M → $840M (+15.3%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+27.1% → +15.3% a year (−11.8 pts)changed
- Free cash flow, 12 months$4M → $3M (−15.0%)changed
- Operating margin−13.3% → −3.6% (+9.8 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding+3.9% (more shares, each owns less)changed
- Net cash (cash minus debt)−0.3% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Health Care)stock −68%, sector median +11% since Jan 8changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −68%, revenue/EPS/FCF median 0% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 952.2× at the high → 375.2× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the low ($6.99, May 6) about 47%; today about 67%. The last 3 years delivered 30%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 30%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $22.68Jan 8 | $6.99May 6 | $7.31 |
| Implied growth | over 80% | +47% | +67% |
| P/FCF | 952.2× | 155.0× | 375.2× |
| EV/Sales | 5.4× | 2.0× | 1.9× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for ATEC: the model gives 92% below the price; trailing free cash flow is small next to the company's value, so a DCF on it says little. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ATEC’s free cash flow would need to grow about 67% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ATEC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 6.2× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.28
- Volatility
- 79% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.21
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.15
How it ranks
Where ATEC stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield0.3% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 21%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+15% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 33%of 2,184
- Operating margin−3.6% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 11%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital−5.1% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 6%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
FCF value $4.98
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to −10.7% in FY2025 from −36.0% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 30% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 69.6% in FY2025 from 64.3% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales grew 15% to $840M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only -0.7× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLost $87M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityLoses money at the operating line: −4% operating margin over the last 12 months.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield is just 0.3%.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 9.7× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
FCF yield 0.3% · Sales +15%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- n/an/m: free cash flow near zero
- FCF yield
- 0.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 33.5×
- Price / sales
- 1.37×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $1.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $1.6B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $840M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +15.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +29.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$0.57
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$87M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 71.3%
- Operating margin
- −3.6%
- Net margin
- −10.3%
- FCF margin
- 0.4%
- Return on equity
- n/an/m: very small or negative equity
- Return on invested capital
- −5%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $80M
- Total debt
- $552M
- Net cash
- −$472M
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- -0.7×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $3M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −15%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +3.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $75M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Alphatec’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.0B · Sales +13%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield0.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin4%
- Gross margin71%
- Operating margin2%
- Return on invested capital2%
- Return on equity−308%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+13%
- Net debt / EBITDA9.7×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $7.31
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$6.99−4.4%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$7.31you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$22.68+210.3%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 30 · 5 days −32.9%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
ATEC is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Alphatec in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Medical instruments
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.