QualityDipStocks / Utilities · Water Supply
American States Water Company AWR
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 4% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $85.50price +2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −4%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.31
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 4% below its 52-week high (Aug 24), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts), others slipped. The price is 4% below its 52-week high.
The price is 4% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($91.10, Aug 24) the price assumed about 49%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($70.10, Feb 9) about 33%; today about 48%. The last 3 years delivered 10%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 10%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $91.10Aug 24 | $70.10Feb 9 | $87.59 |
| Implied growth | +49% | +33% | +48% |
| P/E | 25.2× | 20.9× | 24.2× |
| P/FCF | 173.4× | 77.7× | 166.7× |
| EV/Sales | 6.2× | 5.5× | 6.0× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for AWR: the model gives 86% below the price; trailing free cash flow is small next to the company's value, so a DCF on it says little. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, AWR’s free cash flow would need to grow about 48% a year for five years; our estimate uses 10%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AWR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.31
- Volatility
- 20% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.20
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.31
How it ranks
Where AWR stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield0.6% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 18%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield2.3% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 44%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+13% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 38%of 1,814
- Operating margin32% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 10%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital9.3% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 44%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $85.50
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 32% over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 13% to $697M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.6×, below the 1.5× median for the 66 Utilities companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.3% ($78M paid over 12 months, 55% of earnings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield is just 0.6% (price / FCF 167×), so the price leans on future growth.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 30.9% in FY2025 from 33.0% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 15.3×, above the 13.5× median for the 60 Utilities companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 3.2× EBITDA (limit 3×).
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $1.09): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 24.2 · FCF yield 0.6% · ROE 14%
Valuation
- P/E
- 24.2×Utilities median 21.2×
- Price / FCF
- 166.7×
- FCF yield
- 0.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- 15.3×
- Price / sales
- 4.96×
- Price / book
- 3.08×
- Market cap
- $3.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $4.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $697M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +13.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +10.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.66
- EPS growth, last FY
- +6.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $143M
- Net income growth
- +15%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 90.1%
- Operating margin
- 31.8%
- Net margin
- 20.5%
- FCF margin
- 3.0%
- Return on equity
- 14%
- Return on invested capital
- 9%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $22M
- Total debt
- $718M
- Net cash
- −$696M
- Debt / equity
- 0.64×
- Interest coverage
- 4.7×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $21M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 2.27%$78M paid
- Payout ratio
- 55%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +2.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $4M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From American States Water Company’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.0B · Sales +11%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield0.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin−4%
- Gross margin58%
- Operating margin36%
- Return on invested capital10%
- Return on equity14%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+11%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.2×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $87.59
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$70.10−20.0%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$85.50−2.4%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$87.59you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$91.10+4.0%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 64 · 5 days +2.8%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$1.09
- Year-ago EPS$1.06
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
AWR is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on American States Water Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Water Supply
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.