QualityDipStocks / Finance · Commercial Banks
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria BBVA
On dip watch: 21% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $23.99+2%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −21%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.60
4 bullish · 2 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $23.44
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$19.88−15.2%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$23.44you are here
- Fair value est.base case$23.99+2.3%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$29.64+26.5%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 17.4% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 15.4%; bull = 8.5% and 19.4%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, BBVA would need a return on equity of about 17% a year; our estimate uses 17%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much BBVA moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 2.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.60
- Volatility
- 33% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.62
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.51
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsDividend yield of 3.5% ($4.7B paid over 12 months, 40% of earnings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 17% over the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 11.3×, below the 13.5× median for the 151 Finance companies we cover.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 2 of 5
ValuationPrice / book of 1.9×, above the 1.8× median for the 143 Finance companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 1.60 vs the S&P 500 and 33% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Commercial Banks
All fundamentals
P/E 11.3 · ROE 17%
Valuation
- P/E
- 11.3×Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Price / sales
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Price / book
- 1.93×
- Market cap
- $134Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Sales growth, 12 months
- n/ano year-ago 12-month revenue
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $11.8B
- Net income growth
- +5%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 17%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $66.1B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for a bank
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $15.9B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 3.52%$4.7B paid
- Payout ratio
- 40%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria’s SEC filings, reported in EUR and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $23.99
Financials model (residual income): book value $11.59 a share on Jun 30, 2026 (preferred stock excluded), converted from EUR at 1.123, plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 17.4%, the average of 19.2% for the trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026 and 15.6% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 47% of earnings (dividends 47%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 6-K filed Jul 31, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 25 · 5 days −5.8%
The business
Sales +20%
- Return on equity20%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+20%
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when BBVA fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on BBVA or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.