QualityDipStocks / Finance · Commercial Banks
HDFC Bank HDB
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 40% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $20.07−10%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −40%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.80
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $22.18
- Fair value est.base case$20.07−9.5%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$21.36−3.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$22.18you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$37.13+67.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 11.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 9.0%; bull = 8.5% and 13.0%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, HDB would need a return on equity of about 12% a year; our estimate uses 11%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much HDB moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 2.3× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.80
- Volatility
- 30% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.34
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.21
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales compounded 22% a year from FY2023 to FY2026.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.1% ($2.3B paid over 12 months, 31% of earnings).
ProfitabilityNet margin of 28%, above the 21% median for the 142 Finance companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 1.3×, below the 1.8× median for the 143 Finance companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales growth slowed to −4% over the last 12 months, from 22% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
GrowthSales fell 4% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 8.5%, below the 13% median for the 143 Finance companies we cover.
ValuationP/E of 15.2×, above the 13.5× median for the 151 Finance companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on HDFC Bank in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Commercial Banks
All fundamentals
P/E 15.2 · ROE 8% · Sales −4%
Valuation
- P/E
- 15.2×Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Price / sales
- 4.28×
- Price / book
- 1.31×
- Market cap
- $114Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $156B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $26.6Bnet interest income + noninterest income
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −4.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +21.9%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.48
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $7.5B
- Net income growth
- −5%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 28.2%
- FCF margin
- 42.7%
- Return on equity
- 8%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $27.2B
- Total debt
- $68.9B
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for a bank
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $11.4B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −14%
- Dividend yield
- 2.05%$2.3B paid
- Payout ratio
- 31%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $236M
Trailing 12 months to Mar 31, 2026; balance sheet at Mar 31, 2026. From HDFC Bank’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $20.07
Financials model (residual income): book value $16.89 a share on Mar 31, 2026, converted from INR at 0.01053, 3 shares per ADR, plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 11.0%, the average of 8.9% for the fiscal year to Mar 31, 2026 and 13.1% over fiscal 2022–2026, on average common equity; payout 31% of earnings (dividends 31%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 20-F filed Jul 29, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 47 · 5 days +0.4%
The business
FCF $1,065.8B · Sales +5%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1,065.8B
- Free-cash-flow yield952.4%
- Return on equity10%
- Sales growth (last fiscal year vs prior)+5%
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
HDB is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.