QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Biotech
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals BCRX
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 26% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 5% under its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
Worth knowing
- Down 26% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 69%
- FCF yield 17%, top 2% of the 1145 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $8.67price −5%
- Off 52-wk high
- −26%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.65
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 26% below its 52-week high (Jul 8), but the business held up: revenue +6.2%, free cash flow +20.3%, operating margin +9.8 pts.
Some numbers held up (revenue +6.2%, free cash flow +20.3%, operating margin +9.8 pts), others slipped (revenue growth rate −7.2 pts, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less). The price is 26% below its 52-week high.
The price is 26% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue growth rate −7.2 pts, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$886M → $941M (+6.2%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+75.9% → +68.7% a year (−7.2 pts)changed
- Free cash flow, 12 months$310M → $373M (+20.3%)held up
- Operating margin−43.1% → −33.3% (+9.8 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding+9.5% (more shares, each owns less)changed
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+5.2% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Health Care)stock −26%, sector median +4% since Jul 8changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −26%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +13% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 8.7× at the high → 5.9× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($11.11, Jul 8) the price assumed about −8%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($6.24, Feb 5) about 14%; today about −14%. The last 3 years delivered 48%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 48%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $11.11Jul 8 | $6.24Feb 5 | $8.25 |
| Implied growth | −8% | +14% | −14% |
| P/FCF | 8.7× | 28.7× | 5.9× |
| EV/Sales | 3.2× | 2.3× | 2.4× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for BCRX: the model gives 427% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, BCRX’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 14% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much BCRX moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.8× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.65
- Volatility
- 48% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.17
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.15
How it ranks
Where BCRX stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 4 measures
- Free cash flow yield17% · free cash flow vs market capTop 2%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+69% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 4%of 1,814
- Operating margin−33% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 2%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $8.67 · FCF value $31.43
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 17.1% (price / FCF 5.9×): $373M of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 69% to $941M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 39.0% in FY2025 from −31.3% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 48% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationTrades 4.8% below its Market Value of $8.67, the average price paid since the Aug 5 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only -4.2× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLost $385M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
Cash returnsShare count up 20.6% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
ProfitabilityLoses money at the operating line: −33% operating margin over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no return-on-capital data.
All fundamentals
FCF yield 17.1% · Sales +69%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 5.9×
- FCF yield
- 17.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 2.33×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $2.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $2.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $941M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +68.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +47.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$1.40
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$385M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 97.8%
- Operating margin
- −33.3%
- Net margin
- −40.9%
- FCF margin
- 39.7%
- Return on equity
- n/anegative shareholder equity
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $353M
- Total debt
- $395M
- Net cash
- −$43M
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- -4.2×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $373M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/an/m: free cash flow a year ago near zero
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +20.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $73M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From BioCryst Pharmaceuticals’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +34%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield17.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin34%
- Gross margin77%
- Operating margin45%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+34%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.1×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $8.25
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$6.24−24.4%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$8.25you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$8.67+5.1%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$11.11+34.7%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 50 · 5 days +4.7%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.10
- Year-ago EPS$0.06
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
BCRX is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on BioCryst Pharmaceuticals in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Biotech
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.