QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Hospitals
Brookdale Senior Living BKD
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 38% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 4% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $1.65−84%
- Market Value
- $10.06price +4%
- Off 52-wk high
- −38%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.29
2 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Repricing: business changed
The price is 38% below its 52-week high (Feb 11), but the business held up: operating margin +3.8 pts, net cash (cash minus debt) +5.0% of market cap since the high.
Some numbers held up (operating margin +3.8 pts, net cash (cash minus debt) +5.0% of market cap since the high), others slipped (revenue −5.3%, revenue growth rate −8.4 pts, free cash flow −41.4%). The price is 38% below its 52-week high.
The price is 38% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue −5.3%, revenue growth rate −8.4 pts, free cash flow −41.4%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$3.2B → $3.1B (−5.3%)changed
- Revenue growth rate+3.9% → −4.4% a year (−8.4 pts)changed
- Free cash flow, 12 months$41M → $24M (−41.4%)changed
- Operating margin−0.4% → 3.5% (+3.8 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding+2.7% (more shares, each owns less)about the same
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+5.0% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Health Care)stock −38%, sector median +17% since Feb 11changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −38%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −23% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 98.3× at the high → 107.3× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($16.77, Feb 11) the price assumed about 37%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($9.11, Nov 6) about 42%; today about 39%. The last 3 years delivered 4%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 4%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $16.77Feb 11 | $9.11Nov 6 | $10.44 |
| Implied growth | +37% | +42% | +39% |
| P/FCF | 98.3× | 125.4× | 107.3× |
| EV/Sales | 2.5× | 1.9× | 2.1× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 4.2% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 2.2%; bull = 8.5% and 6.2% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, BKD’s free cash flow would need to grow about 39% a year for five years; our estimate uses 4%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much BKD moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 3.0× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.29
- Volatility
- 39% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.10
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.02
How it ranks
Where BKD stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate84% · price above our base caseLowest 1%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield0.9% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 20%of 1,391
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−4.4% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 6%of 1,814
- Operating margin3.5% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 21%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital2.2% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 14%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $1.65 · MV $10.06 · FCF value $2.09
Assumes 4.2% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 4.2% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.10 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 10, 2026. Net debt $3.9B, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 2 of 5
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 39% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 14.7×, below the 17.4× median for the 88 Health Care companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $1.65, 84% below the price.
ProfitabilityLost $138M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
Balance sheetNet debt of $3.9B, 152% of the market cap (Jun 30, 2026).
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 2%, below the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; sales down vs the year-ago quarter; net debt 11.0× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
FCF yield 0.9% · Sales −4%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 107.3×
- FCF yield
- 0.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- 14.7×
- Price / sales
- 0.83×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $2.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $6.4B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −4.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +4.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$0.59
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$138M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 26.9%
- Operating margin
- 3.5%
- Net margin
- −4.5%
- FCF margin
- 0.8%
- Return on equity
- n/an/m: very small or negative equity
- Return on invested capital
- 2%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $390M
- Total debt
- $4.3B
- Net cash
- −$3.9B
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $24M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +39%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +3.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $12M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Brookdale Senior Living’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.0B · Sales −9%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield0.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin1%
- Gross margin28%
- Operating margin7%
- Return on invested capital3%
- Return on equity−350%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−9%
- Net debt / EBITDA11.0×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $10.44
- Fair value est.base case$1.65−84.2%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$9.11−12.7%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 8$10.06−3.6%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$10.44you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$16.77+60.6%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 49 · 5 days +7.0%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 6
- DateFri Nov 6, before the open
- Consensus EPS($0.02)
- Year-ago EPS($0.20)
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
BKD is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Brookdale Senior Living in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Hospitals
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.