QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Machinery & trucks
Blue Bird BLBD
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 29% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- ROE 64% and more cash than debt
- Down 31% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 13%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $134.41+133%
- Market Value
- $56.86price +2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −29%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 1.07
52-week range 32% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $57.76Fair value est. $134.41Market Value $56.86
5 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 29% below its 52-week high (Jul 20), but the business held up: revenue +8.0%, revenue growth rate +3.4 pts, earnings per share +95.5%.
Some numbers held up (revenue +8.0%, revenue growth rate +3.4 pts, earnings per share +95.5%), others slipped (shares outstanding more shares, each owns less, free cash flow −16.7%, net cash (cash minus debt) −7.8% of market cap since the high). The price is 29% below its 52-week high.
The price is 29% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: shares outstanding more shares, each owns less, free cash flow −16.7%, net cash (cash minus debt) −7.8% of market cap since the high.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$1.5B → $1.6B (+8.0%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+10.1% → +13.5% a year (+3.4 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$4.10 → $8.02 (+95.5%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$184M → $153M (−16.7%)changed
- Operating margin11.9% → 11.8% (−0.1 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding+8.4% (more shares, each owns less)changed
- Net cash (cash minus debt)−7.8% of market cap since the highchanged
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −29%, sector median +1% since Jul 20changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −29%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +8% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 14.4× at the high → 13.3× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 28, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 27, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($81.50, Jul 20) the price assumed about 1%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($46.59, Dec 30) about −5%; today about 0%. The last 3 years delivered 23%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 23%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $81.50Jul 20 | $46.59Dec 30 | $57.76 |
| Implied growth | +1% | −5% | 0% |
| P/E | 19.9× | 12.0× | 7.2× |
| P/FCF | 14.4× | 10.0× | 13.3× |
| EV/Sales | 1.6× | 0.9× | 1.2× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, BLBD’s free cash flow would need to stay flat for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much BLBD moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 3.3× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.07
- Volatility
- 42% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.33
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.31
How it ranks
Where BLBD stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 3 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate133% · price below our base caseTop 5%of 1,507
- Free cash flow yield7.5% · free cash flow vs market capTop 21%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield0.4% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 27%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+13% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 37%of 2,184
- Operating margin12% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 47%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital26% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 13%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $134.41 · MV $56.86
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 22.7% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.36 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 27, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026. Net cash $30M, not added.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 64% over the last 12 months.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $134.41, 133% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ValuationP/E of 7.2× vs a 20.1× median for the 411 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 7.5% (price / FCF 13.3×): $153M of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthSales compounded 23% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Top bearish points 3 of 5
Cash returnsShare count up 7.9% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
GrowthSales growth slowed to 13% over the last 12 months, from 23% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow.
All fundamentals
P/E 7.2 · FCF yield 7.5% · ROE 64%
Valuation
- P/E
- 7.2×Consumer Discretionary median 20.1×
- Price / FCF
- 13.3×
- FCF yield
- 7.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- 9.5×
- Price / sales
- 1.26×
- Price / book
- 3.10×
- Market cap
- $2.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $2.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.6B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +13.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +22.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $8.45
- EPS growth, last FY
- +22.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $282M
- Net income growth
- +143%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 20.6%
- Operating margin
- 11.8%
- Net margin
- 17.5%
- FCF margin
- 9.5%
- Return on equity
- 64%
- Return on invested capital
- 26%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $117M
- Total debt
- $87M
- Net cash
- $30M
- Debt / equity
- 0.13×
- Interest coverage
- 27.9×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $153M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +7%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $8M0.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +7.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $7M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 27, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 27, 2026. From Blue Bird’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.0B · Sales +30%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield7.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin−1%
- Gross margin21%
- Operating margin12%
- Return on invested capital24%
- Return on equity64%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+30%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.0×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $57.76
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$46.59−19.3%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 6$56.86−1.6%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$57.76you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$81.50+41.1%
- Fair value est.base case$134.41+132.7%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 51 · 5 days −0.5%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 23
- DateMon Nov 23
- Consensus EPS$1.42
- Year-ago EPS$1.28
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
BLBD is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Blue Bird in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer Discretionary
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.