QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Medical Specialities
BillionToOne BLLN
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 26% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Down 26% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 90%
- Revenue up 90% in a year, top 3% of the 1820 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $18.79−83%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −26%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.64
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 26% below its 52-week high (Aug 5), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts), others slipped. The price is 26% below its 52-week high.
The price is 26% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$397M → $397M (0.0%)about the same
- Earnings per share, 12 months$0.61 → $0.61 (0.0%)about the same
- Free cash flow, 12 months$33M → $33M (0.0%)held up
- Operating margin10.9% → 10.9% (0.0 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding0.0% (unchanged)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)0.0% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Health Care)stock −26%, sector median +4% since Aug 5changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −26%, revenue/EPS/FCF median 0% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 246.2× at the high → 181.2× now (shown, not scored)
No new report since the high (Aug 5, 2026): the business numbers are the same as then, so this read is capped at 65. Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($149.97, Aug 5) the price assumed about 57%/yr free-cash-flow growth; today about 50%. The last 3 years delivered 106%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 106%/yr (revenue)
| High | Now | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $149.97Aug 5 | $110.41 |
| Implied growth | +57% | +50% |
| P/E | 246.2× | 181.2× |
| P/FCF | 246.2× | 181.2× |
| EV/Sales | 19.4× | 14.0× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, BLLN’s free cash flow would need to grow about 50% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Nov 7 to Nov 2, 247 sessions). Beta = how much BLLN moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 6.9× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.64
- Volatility
- 88% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.24
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.21
How it ranks
Where BLLN stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate83% · price above our base caseLowest 1%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield0.6% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 18%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+90% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 2%of 1,814
- Operating margin11% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 46%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital54% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 4%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $18.79 · FCF value $5.31
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 106.2% a year FY23–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.61 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026. Net cash $458M, not added.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 90% to $397M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 68.3% in FY2025 from 24.1% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 5.3% in FY2025 from −96.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 106% a year from FY2023 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 54%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $18.79, 83% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 181.2× vs a 29.0× median for the 135 Health Care companies we cover.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 111×: a rich multiple of current earnings power.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield is just 0.6% (price / FCF 181×), so the price leans on future growth.
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $0.16): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 181.2 · FCF yield 0.6% · ROE 23%
Valuation
- P/E
- 181.2×Health Care median 29.0×
- Price / FCF
- 181.2×
- FCF yield
- 0.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- 110.6×
- Price / sales
- 15.13×
- Price / book
- 11.20×
- Market cap
- $6.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $5.6B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $397M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +90.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +106.2%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.03
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $33M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 71.3%
- Operating margin
- 10.9%
- Net margin
- 8.3%
- FCF margin
- 8.3%
- Return on equity
- 23%
- Return on invested capital
- 54%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $549M
- Total debt
- $91M
- Net cash
- $458M
- Debt / equity
- 0.17×
- Interest coverage
- 1056.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $33M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $26M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From BillionToOne’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.0B · Sales +64%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield0.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin3%
- Gross margin71%
- Operating margin5%
- Return on invested capital19%
- Return on equity11%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+64%
- Net debt / EBITDA−8.1×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $110.41
- Fair value est.base case$18.79−83.0%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$64.03−42.0%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$110.41you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$149.97+35.8%
Momentum & 52-week range
5 days −0.9%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.16
- Year-ago EPS$0.10
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
BLLN is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on BillionToOne in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Medical Specialities
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.