QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Pharmaceuticals
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company BMY
Not in a dip by our rules: 8% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $71.67+15%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −8%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.17
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $62.48
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$45.59−27.0%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$62.48you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$68.09+9.0%
- Fair value est.base case$71.67+14.7%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, BMY’s free cash flow would need to grow about 1% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much BMY moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.2× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.17
- Volatility
- 28% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.08
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.07
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $71.67, 15% above the price.
ValuationP/E of 13.9× vs a 29.2× median for the 86 Health Care companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 7.2% (price / FCF 13.8×): $9.3B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 44% over the last 12 months, up 11 points in two years.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 39% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 71.1% in FY2025 from 76.2% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales grew only 1.4% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 1.9×, above the 0.7× median for the 67 Health Care companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Bristol-Myers Squibb Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Pharmaceuticals
All fundamentals
P/E 13.9 · FCF yield 7.2% · ROE 44%
Valuation
- P/E
- 13.9×Health Care median 29.2×
- Price / FCF
- 13.8×
- FCF yield
- 7.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 2.56×
- Price / book
- 5.48×
- Market cap
- $128Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $159B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $50.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +4.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +1.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.51
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $9.2B
- Net income growth
- +53%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 69.2%
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 18.5%
- FCF margin
- 18.6%
- Return on equity
- 44%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $12.6B
- Total debt
- $43.6B
- Net cash
- −$31.1B
- Debt / equity
- 1.86×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $9.3B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −39%
- Dividend yield
- 3.99%$5.1B paid
- Payout ratio
- 55%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.7%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $552M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Bristol-Myers Squibb Company’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $71.67 · FCF value $115.72
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 1.4% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.52 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026. Net debt $31.1B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 55 · 5 days +1.6%
The business
FCF $9.3B · Sales +7%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$9.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield7.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin19%
- Gross margin69%
- Operating margin29%
- Return on invested capital17%
- Return on equity45%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+7%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.2×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when BMY fires a reversal signal
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