QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Pharmaceuticals
Novo Nordisk A/S NVO
In a deep dip: 37% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $61.42+54%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −37%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 0.96
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $40.00
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$35.29−11.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$40.00you are here
- Fair value est.base case$61.42+53.5%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$63.98+59.9%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, NVO’s free cash flow would need to grow about 7% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much NVO moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 3.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.96
- Volatility
- 46% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.27
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.15
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $61.42, 54% above the price.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 61% over the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 11.6× vs a 29.2× median for the 86 Health Care companies we cover.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 37% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales growth slowed to 6% over the last 12 months, from 20% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 41.3% in FY2025 from 44.2% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 81.0% in FY2025 from 84.6% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 20% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $0.81): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Novo Nordisk A/S in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Pharmaceuticals
All fundamentals
P/E 11.6 · FCF yield 5.0% · ROE 61%
Valuation
- P/E
- 11.6×Health Care median 29.2×
- Price / FCF
- 20.1×
- FCF yield
- 5.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.83×
- Price / book
- 6.11×
- Market cap
- $178Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $46.4B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +6.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +20.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $23.03
- EPS growth, last FY
- +1.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $15.4B
- Net income growth
- +1%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 81.0%
- Operating margin
- 41.3%
- Net margin
- 33.1%
- FCF margin
- 19.1%
- Return on equity
- 61%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $4.0B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 30.3×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $8.9B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −20%
- Dividend yield
- 4.37%$7.8B paid
- Payout ratio
- 51%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $208M0.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Novo Nordisk A/S’s SEC filings, reported in DKK and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $61.42 · FCF value $275.76
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 20.4% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.99 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, converted from DKK at 0.1502), from the 20-F filed Feb 4, 2026. Net debt $15.7B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 54 · 5 days +2.4%
The business
FCF $47.8B · Sales +2%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$47.8B
- Free-cash-flow yield27.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin14%
- Gross margin81%
- Operating margin43%
- Return on invested capital31%
- Return on equity61%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+2%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.7×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.81
- Year-ago EPS$1.02
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when NVO fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on NVO or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.