QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Transportation Services
BW LPG BWLP
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 11% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Dividend yield 6.8%, top 3% of the 1731 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $47.57+103%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −11%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.39
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 11% below its 52-week high (Oct 8), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, free cash flow 0.0%.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, free cash flow 0.0%), others slipped. The price is 11% below its 52-week high.
The price is 11% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 7 numbers, high vs now
- Earnings per share, 12 months$1.60 → $1.60 (0.0%)about the same
- Free cash flow, 12 months$385M → $385M (0.0%)held up
- Shares outstanding0.0% (unchanged)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)0.0% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −11%, sector median +8% since Oct 8about the same
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −11%, revenue/EPS/FCF median 0% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 10.4× at the high → 9.3× now (shown, not scored)
No new report since the high (Oct 8, 2026): the business numbers are the same as then, so this read is capped at 65. Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($26.32, Oct 8) the price assumed about −4%/yr free-cash-flow growth; today about −6%. The last 3 years delivered −6%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −6%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Now | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $26.32Oct 8 | $23.47 |
| Implied growth | −4% | −6% |
| P/E | 16.5× | 14.7× |
| P/FCF | 10.4× | 9.3× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 6.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 4.0%; bull = 8.5% and 8.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, BWLP’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 6% a year for five years; our estimate uses 6%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much BWLP moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.39
- Volatility
- 39% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.13
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.09
How it ranks
Where BWLP stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 4 of 4 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate103% · price below our base caseTop 8%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield11% · free cash flow vs market capTop 10%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield6.8% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 15%of 1,836
- Return on invested capital19% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 23%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $47.57 · FCF value $61.85
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 6.0% growth for 5 years (default; under two years of revenue in SEC data), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.54 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025), from the 20-F filed Mar 31, 2026. Net debt $734M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 10.8% (price / FCF 9.3×): $385M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $47.57, 103% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 162% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 6.8% ($241M paid over 12 months, 99% of earnings).
ValuationP/E of 14.7× vs a 20.7× median for the 341 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 19 points in two fiscal years, to 13% in FY2025.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 39% to $1.60 in FY2025.
Cash returnsDividends take 99% of earnings ($241M paid over 12 months), leaving little to reinvest or raise the payout.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
All fundamentals
P/E 14.7 · FCF yield 10.8% · ROE 13%
Valuation
- P/E
- 14.7×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- 9.3×
- FCF yield
- 10.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Price / book
- 1.95×
- Market cap
- $3.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $3.4B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Sales growth, 12 months
- n/ano year-ago 12-month revenue
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.60
- EPS growth, last FY
- −39.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $242M
- Net income growth
- −32%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 13%
- Return on invested capital
- 19%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $242M
- Total debt
- $123M
- Net cash
- $119M
- Debt / equity
- 0.07×
- Interest coverage
- 6.6×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $385M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +162%
- Dividend yield
- 6.76%$241M paid
- Payout ratio
- 99%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $3M0.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From BW LPG’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.4B · Sales −3%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield10.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin11%
- Gross margin25%
- Operating margin14%
- Return on invested capital15%
- Return on equity26%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−3%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.9×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $23.47
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$11.99−48.9%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$23.47you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$26.32+12.1%
- Fair value est.base case$47.57+102.7%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 38 · 5 days −9.9%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 23
- DateMon Nov 23, before the open
- Year-ago EPS$0.38
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
BWLP is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on BW LPG in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Transportation Services
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.