QualityDipStocks / Real Estate · Real Estate
CBRE Group CBRE
Reversal signal fired on the Oct 30 close; 25% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $73.65−43%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −25%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.89
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $128.85
- Fair value est.base case$73.65−42.8%
- Stopfrom the Oct 30 signal$121.44−5.8%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$121.65−5.6%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$128.85you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$171.61+33.2%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 9.6% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 7.6%; bull = 8.5% and 11.6% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CBRE’s free cash flow would need to grow about 20% a year for five years; our estimate uses 10%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CBRE moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 2.7× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.89
- Volatility
- 34% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.34
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.16
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 27.2× is 28% below its own average of 37.7× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
Cash returnsShare count down 2.9% in a year: $1.4B of buybacks over 12 months.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 23% to $3.85 in FY2025.
SetupReversal signal fired: R3 · Oversold MACD turn at value on the Oct 30 close at $128.85.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $73.65, 43% below the price.
Balance sheetDebt rose 117% to $7.6B from FY2023 to FY2025.
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 31% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 4.6%, below the 39% median for the 24 Real Estate companies we cover.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 19%, below the 62% median for the 15 Real Estate companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on CBRE Group in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Real Estate
All fundamentals
P/E 27.2 · FCF yield 2.5% · ROE 16%
Valuation
- P/E
- 27.2×3-yr-end avg 37.7× · Real Estate median 28.7×
- Price / FCF
- 40.1×
- FCF yield
- 2.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- 15.0×
- Price / sales
- 0.83×
- Price / book
- 4.33×
- Market cap
- $37.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $43.8B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $45.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +14.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +9.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.67
- EPS growth, last FY
- +22.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.4B
- Net income growth
- +12%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 18.5%
- Operating margin
- 4.6%
- Net margin
- 3.1%
- FCF margin
- 2.1%
- Return on equity
- 16%
- Return on invested capital
- 11%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.7B
- Total debt
- $7.9B
- Net cash
- −$6.2B
- Debt / equity
- 0.91×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $938M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −31%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.4B3.8% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −2.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $168M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From CBRE Group’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $73.65
Assumes 9.6% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 9.6% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $3.22 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 22, 2026. Net debt $6.2B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
Signal fired
- R3 · Oversold MACD turn at value Oct 30 close$128.85
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 47 · 5 days +4.5%
The business
FCF $0.9B · Sales +13%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.9B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.5%
- Return on equity16%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+13%
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when CBRE fires a reversal signal
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