QualityDipStocks / Real Estate · REITs
VICI Properties VICI
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 20% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −20%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.02
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $24.46
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$22.53−7.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$24.46you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$30.63+25.2%
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for VICI: the model gives 210% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, VICI’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 5% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much VICI moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.5× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.02
- Volatility
- 19% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.01
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.23
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 10.0% (price / FCF 10.0×): $2.7B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 11.5× vs a 28.7× median for the 46 Real Estate companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 7.2% ($1.9B paid over 12 months, 83% of earnings).
GrowthSales compounded 15% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetNet debt of $16.6B, 62% of the market cap (Sep 30, 2026).
GrowthSales growth slowed to 5% over the last 12 months, from 15% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
Cash returnsShare count up 3.0% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
Cash returnsDividends take 83% of earnings ($1.9B paid over 12 months), leaving little to reinvest or raise the payout.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 5.4× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on VICI Properties in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in REITs
All fundamentals
P/E 11.5 · FCF yield 10.0% · ROE 8%
Valuation
- P/E
- 11.5×Real Estate median 28.7×
- Price / FCF
- 10.0×
- FCF yield
- 10.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 6.48×
- Price / book
- 0.93×
- Market cap
- $26.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $43.6B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $4.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +4.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +15.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.16
- EPS growth, last FY
- +2.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.3B
- Net income growth
- −16%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 99.3%
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 56.5%
- FCF margin
- 65.1%
- Return on equity
- 8%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $270M
- Total debt
- $16.9B
- Net cash
- −$16.6B
- Debt / equity
- 0.58×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $2.7B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +10%
- Dividend yield
- 7.20%$1.9B paid
- Payout ratio
- 83%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +3.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $18M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From VICI Properties’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
FCF value $61.15
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 59 · 5 days +2.9%
The business
FCF $2.7B · Sales +6%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield10.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin65%
- Gross margin99%
- Operating margin77%
- Return on invested capital6%
- Return on equity8%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+6%
- Net debt / EBITDA5.4×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
VICI is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.