QualityDipStocks / Utilities · Electric utilities
Constellation Energy CEG
In a deep dip: 31% below its 52-week high.
A quality company, 4% under its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $274.18price −4%
- Off 52-wk high
- −31%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.41
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $262.38
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$236.50−9.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$262.38you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 6$274.18+4.5%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$382.48+45.8%
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for CEG: the model gives 95% below the price; trailing free cash flow is small next to the company's value, so a DCF on it says little. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CEG’s free cash flow would need to grow about 62% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CEG moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.7× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.41
- Volatility
- 48% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.37
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.38
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 26% to $31.3B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 12.1% in FY2025 from 6.5% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 15% over the last 12 months.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 31% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
ValuationTrades 4.3% below its Market Value of $274.18, the average price paid since the Aug 6 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsShare count up 14.6% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 38% to $7.40 in FY2025.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield is just 0.3%.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 6%, below the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
RiskReports earnings Nov 9 (consensus EPS $3.90): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Constellation Energy in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Electric utilities
All fundamentals
P/E 27.3 · FCF yield 0.3% · ROE 15%
Valuation
- P/E
- 27.3×3-yr-end avg 30.0× · Utilities median 21.2×
- Price / FCF
- n/an/m: free cash flow near zero
- FCF yield
- 0.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 14.3×
- Price / sales
- 3.02×
- Price / book
- 2.95×
- Market cap
- $94.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $118B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $31.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +26.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +1.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $10.23
- EPS growth, last FY
- −37.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $3.5B
- Net income growth
- +15%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 14.7%
- Net margin
- 11.1%
- FCF margin
- 1.0%
- Return on equity
- 15%
- Return on invested capital
- 6%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $697M
- Total debt
- $24.7B
- Net cash
- −$24.0B
- Debt / equity
- 0.77×
- Interest coverage
- 5.9×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $309M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0.58%$551M paid
- Payout ratio
- 16%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $2.0B2.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +14.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Constellation Energy’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
MV $274.18 · FCF value $21.70
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 47 · 5 days +3.5%
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +23%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield0.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin1%
- Gross margin21%
- Operating margin18%
- Return on invested capital8%
- Return on equity16%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+23%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.9×
Next report
Nov 9
- DateMon Nov 9, before the open
- Consensus EPS$3.90
- Year-ago EPS$3.04
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when CEG fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on CEG or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.